华宝期货碳酸锂晨报：宏观叠加供应扰动高位震荡，成材：重心下移偏弱运行-20260401

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing high-level fluctuations due to the combination of macro factors and supply disruptions [2][3] Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate oscillated downward with increased trading volume and showed a position reduction throughout the day. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt volume decreased to 11,318 lots. The difference in open interest between the 2605 and 2609 contracts has narrowed to only 10,000 lots. The SMM average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the spot market is 164,500 yuan/ton. As prices fall, upstream lithium salt producers are more reluctant to sell, while downstream material manufacturers' procurement has not significantly improved. Inquiries are active, but transactions are somewhat light [2] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Last week, raw material prices were divided. The CIF price of spodumene concentrate in China slightly increased, while the domestic spot price slightly decreased. The SMM operating rate continued to rise to 56.57%, and the total output increased to 24,814 tons, with overall supply steadily increasing [3] - Demand: Ternary lithium iron phosphate continued the trend of increasing production and inventory. Energy storage cells had strong production and sales and low inventory, presenting a structural highlight. The intensive release of new models from March to April is expected to drive a marginal improvement in demand [3] - Inventory: Last week, the SMM four - region social inventory decreased to 39,300 tons. The sample weekly inventory increased to 99,500 tons in a cumulative manner but remained at a relatively low level. The total inventory days increased to 27.9 days. Structurally, upstream and downstream enterprises increased inventory, while traders reduced inventory [3] Macro - policy Analysis - International: The 15% temporary tariff policy of the US White House is still within the window period, which is a phased positive for demand. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to cause disruptions, but Trump has signaled the end of the war, and macro uncertainties still exist [3] - Domestic: The comprehensive utilization management method for new - energy vehicle power batteries will long - term optimize the domestic supply structure and raise the cost support center. The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and the Central Economic Work Conference support the long - term balance of supply and demand. The 2026 government work report mentioned zero - carbon parks/factories, which are expected to become the second growth curve for energy storage [3]