豆粕：USDA面积报告偏多，盘面或反弹，豆一：现货稳定，盘面反弹震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The USDA area report for soybeans is bullish, and the futures market may rebound; the spot price of soybeans is stable, and the futures market rebounds and fluctuates [1] - On March 31, 2026, CBOT soybean futures closed higher as the USDA's soybean planting area forecast was lower than market expectations. The 2026 US soybean planting area is expected to be 84.7 million acres, a 4% year-on-year increase but lower than Reuters' pre-report forecast of 85.549 million acres. The quarterly inventory report shows that as of March 1, 2026, the total US soybean inventory was 2.1 billion bushels, a 10% year-on-year increase and higher than market expectations [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE Soybean 2605: The closing price was 4,641 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan (+1.62%) during the day session and 4,639 yuan, up 27 yuan (+0.59%) during the night session [1] - DCE Soybean Meal 2605: The closing price was 2,915 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (-0.75%) during the day session and 2,913 yuan, down 6 yuan (-0.21%) during the night session [1] - CBOT Soybean 05: The price was up 13.5 cents (+1.17%) to 1,172.25 cents/bushel [1] - CBOT Soybean Meal 05: The price was 316.4 dollars/short ton, up 1.8 dollars (+0.57%) [1] Spot - Shandong: The spot price of soybean meal (43%) was flat to -20 yuan compared to the previous day. The spot basis was M2605 + 260/+270/+300, with prices ranging from 3,180 to 3,220 yuan/ton. For April 20 - 30 delivery, it was M2605 + 200, flat; for April 20 - May 15 delivery, it was M2605 + 160; for May, it was M2605 + 100/+130/+160; for May - July, it was M2605 + 0/+20/+50; for August - September, it was M2609 - 30/-20/+0/+30/+60; for October - January, it was M2701 + 30/+40/+50/+70/+100 [1] - East China: The spot price of soybean meal was M2605 + 230, down 30 yuan compared to the previous day. For April 16 - 30 delivery, it was M2605 + 200, flat; for May, it was M2605 + 100, flat [1] - South China: The spot price of soybean meal ranged from 3,180 to 3,420 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan to flat compared to the previous day. For April 25 - May 10 delivery, it was M2605 + 180, flat; for April 16 - May 15 delivery, it was M2605 + 180, flat; for May, it was M2605 + 100, flat [1] - Bayan: The price of soybeans was 4,680 yuan/ton [1] Inventory and Trading Volume - The inventory of soybean meal was 63.1 million tons/week, compared to 64.18 million tons the previous week [1] - The trading volume of soybeans was 10.6 million tons/day, compared to 8.49 million tons the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 31, 2026, CBOT soybean futures closed higher as the USDA's soybean planting area forecast was lower than market expectations. The 2026 US soybean planting area is expected to be 84.7 million acres, a 4% year-on-year increase but lower than Reuters' pre-report forecast of 85.549 million acres. The quarterly inventory report shows that as of March 1, 2026, the total US soybean inventory was 2.1 billion bushels, a 10% year-on-year increase and higher than market expectations [3] - In Brazil, soybean harvesting in some areas is nearly complete, and there has been rainfall in many areas this week. Although the recent rainfall has slowed the harvesting progress in northeastern Brazil, it has helped the late - growing soybean crops in Rio Grande do Sul [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1; the trend intensity of soybeans is 0 (referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract during the day session on the report day) [3]