格林大华期货早盘提示：白糖、红枣-20260401

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the sugar market, the overseas market focuses on the final sugar production in India and Thailand and the new - season sugar - making process in Brazil. Due to geopolitical factors, the market bets that Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio will favor ethanol, tightening the final sugar supply. The domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 season is nearing completion with an expected increase. The domestic supply - demand structure is relatively loose, but the high price of raw sugar and the potential policy bottom provide support. Zheng sugar may maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term [1]. - For the rubber market, the natural rubber market has a mixed fundamental situation. The seasonal reduction in Southeast Asia supports raw material prices, while the new - season tapping in China may suppress prices. The demand side has some drag, and the inventory in Qingdao has not reached the de - stocking inflection point. However, the high prices of raw materials and synthetic rubber create a bullish sentiment. The synthetic rubber, especially BR, is in an upward channel. The rising cost of raw materials and the expected reduction in supply make its price likely to continue to rise in the short term [4]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market 1. Market Quotes - SR605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.79% and night - session closing at 5418 yuan/ton; SR609 contract closed at 5431 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.66% and night - session closing at 5448 yuan/ton. The ICE raw sugar主力 contract was at 15.51 cents/pound with a daily decline of 0.19% [1]. 2. Important Information - The consulting firm Safras&Mercado expects Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season to be 40.3 million tons, down from 43.5 million tons in the previous season. - As of the first half of March in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 603.667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.65 million tons (2.21%); the ATR of sugarcane was 138.25 kg/ton, a decrease of 3.07 kg/ton compared to the same period last year; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.61%, an increase of 2.53% compared to the same period last year; the cumulative ethanol production was 32.962 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45 billion liters (4.21%); the cumulative sugar production was 40.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 282,000 tons (0.71%) [1]. - In India, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season in the state of Maharashtra is near the end, with 183 out of 210 sugar mills having stopped production, and the remaining 27 mills are expected to stop within the next 15 days. In Uttar Pradesh, about 78 sugar mills are expected to continue production until mid - April. In Guangxi, China, 10 more sugar mills stopped production from March 27th to 30th. As of March 30th, the number of sugar mills that have stopped production in the 2025/26 season in Guangxi has reached 38, more than half of the total [1]. - The number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 16,862, with a daily increase of 0 [1]. 3. Market Logic - Overseas: The ICE market is in wide - range oscillation. The market focuses on the final sugar production in India and Thailand and Brazil's new - season sugar - making process. Due to geopolitical factors, the market bets on Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio favoring ethanol, tightening the sugar supply. Short - term attention should be paid to overseas macro trends and Brazil's actual production [1]. - Domestic: Zheng sugar declined yesterday, and the main contract closed above 5400 at night. The domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 season is nearing completion, and the expected increase in production is basically achieved. The domestic supply - demand structure is relatively loose, but the approaching sugar - making season in Brazil and the tense Middle - East situation make Brazil's sugar - making prospects unclear. The high price of raw sugar provides some support, and there is also a potential policy bottom. Technically, Zheng sugar is still in an upward channel, but there is pressure above, and it may maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see for Zheng sugar, and focus on short - term trading in the near future [1]. Rubber Market 1. Market Quotes - The closing price of the RU main contract was 16,345 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.18%; the NR main contract closed at 13,605 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.73%; the BR main contract closed at 17,350 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 2.12% [4]. 2. Important Information - The price of raw material glue in Thailand was 80 Thai baht/kg (0.5/1%), and the cup - rubber price was 59.5 Thai baht/kg (0/0%). In Yunnan, the price of glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 15,300 yuan/ton (300/2%), and for producing concentrated latex was 15,300 yuan/ton (100/0.66%), with a price difference of 0 yuan/ton (- 200). The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,800 yuan/ton (0/0%); in Hainan, the price of glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (0/0%), and for producing concentrated latex was 16,500 yuan/ton (0/0%) [4]. - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,800 tons (0.85%). The bonded - area inventory was 120,100 tons, a decrease of 1.62%; the general - trade inventory was 571,300 tons, an increase of 1.38%. The inbound rate of the bonded - warehouse samples in Qingdao decreased by 1.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.17 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general - trade warehouses increased by 0.48 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.36 percentage points [4]. - The price of whole - milk rubber was 16,250 yuan/ton (- 150/- 0.91%); the price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 2,015 US dollars/ton (- 20/- 0.98%), equivalent to 13,943 yuan/ton in RMB; the price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 15,700 yuan/ton (- 100/- 0.63%) [4]. - The price difference between the RU and NR main contracts was 2,740 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan/ton; the price difference between the mixed - standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 645 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 95 yuan/ton [4]. - The delivery price of butadiene in the central region of Shandong was 17,600 - 17,800 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 17,500 - 17,800 yuan/ton [4]. - The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber declined. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,800 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 18,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Market Logic - Natural rubber: The natural rubber market oscillated weakly yesterday and rebounded at night. The seasonal reduction in Southeast Asia supports raw material prices, while the new - season tapping in China may suppress prices. Some semi - steel tire enterprises have reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The inventory in Qingdao has not reached the de - stocking inflection point, which suppresses the rubber price. In the short term, the fundamentals of natural rubber are mixed, but the high prices of raw materials and synthetic rubber create a bullish sentiment [4]. - Synthetic rubber: BR is still in an upward channel. The continuous impact of crude oil and frequent news of butadiene exports have increased the raw - material cost of cis - butadiene rubber, and some merchants' quoting intentions remain firm. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber continues to decline, and the supply is expected to decrease. In the short term, the price of cis - butadiene rubber may continue to rise, and its price will fluctuate according to the macro situation and upstream production [4]. 4. Trading Strategy - For the RU main contract, pay attention to whether it can stand above 16,750, and if so, look for pressure at 17,000; for the NR main contract, pay attention to the pressure around 14,000; hold the long positions of BR [4].