有色商品日报（2026年4月1日）-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated upward. The spot import window for refined copper in China opened, but import profits significantly narrowed. Macro factors included Powell's dovish statement and news of potential easing of the Middle - East conflict between the US and Iran. US job vacancies decreased, and the euro - zone inflation rate rose. In China, the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs increased, and the central bank planned to strengthen monetary policy. LME, Comex, and SHFE copper inventories decreased, and domestic downstream restocking led to a rapid decline in social inventories. Short - term, the market is optimistic about the conflict - easing signal, but caution is still needed. It is recommended to operate within a range and gradually build long positions at key support levels, focusing on the performance of copper prices in the 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The domestic alumina factory inventory is at a three - month high, and with imported alumina arriving and new capacity in Guangxi coming online, the inventory is accumulating again. The high premium in the futures market has accelerated warehouse receipt registration, pressuring alumina. Attacks on two large aluminum plants in the Middle East are expected to drive up overseas aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory accumulation has shown signs of easing, and a de - stocking inflection point may be seen in April. In the short term, due to the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and unfulfilled domestic demand, the pattern of weak domestic and strong international prices is difficult to reverse quickly [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell by 0.75%, while Shanghai nickel rose by 0.13%. LME nickel inventory decreased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased. Under the influence of tight nickel ore supply and rising freight, nickel ore prices are high, and nickel - iron prices and MHP discount coefficients are strengthening. However, primary nickel inventory is under pressure. With the tightening of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, there are short - term trading opportunities to go long based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics, market sentiment, and the potential impact of the July quota replenishment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight price increase, influenced by macro factors, inventory decline, and strong domestic demand. Short - term operation suggestions are given [1]. - Aluminum: Different trends in alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy. Inventory accumulation and geopolitical factors affect the market [1][2]. - Nickel: Opposite price trends in LME and Shanghai nickel. Cost - side factors and inventory pressure co - exist [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Price changes in various copper products, inventory decreases in multiple exchanges, and changes in import - related indicators [1][4]. - Lead: Price changes in lead products, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [4]. - Aluminum: Price changes in aluminum products, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [5]. - Nickel: Price changes in nickel products, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [3][5]. - Zinc: Price changes, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [7]. - Tin: Price changes, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Spot Premium: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][13]. - 3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [15][18][20]. - 3.3.3 LME Inventory: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][25][27]. - 3.3.4 SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][31][33]. - 3.3.5 Social Inventory: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][37][40]. - 3.3.6 Smelting Profit: Charts show the smelting profit - related trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, and stainless steel from 2019 - 2026 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research [48][49].