铁矿石：供给突发减量，矿价高位震荡

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The iron ore price has been fluctuating at a high level recently. The main reasons are concerns about restricted domestic spot trade liquidity, unexpected reduction in foreign ore supply, increased iron ore demand, and rising shipping costs due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [3]. - In the short term, the supply - demand relationship of iron ore has marginally improved, but the macro - driving force remains weak. Geopolitical factors have increased the cost of iron ore. In the long run, trade restrictions will not change the pattern of loose supply - demand, and the release of spot liquidity will significantly pressure the price [3]. - The expected price range is 104 - 109 US dollars/ton (61% index), corresponding to 790 - 825 yuan/ton for Dalian iron ore futures. The recommended strategy is range operation and selling call options [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - The current foreign ore shipment has significantly declined month - on - month due to the Australian hurricane but started to recover on March 29. Although it has a short - term impact on supply, the shipment from Brazil has increased significantly, so the short - term support for foreign ore supply has strengthened [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has entered a recovery cycle. The lifting of environmental protection restrictions in Hebei, the seasonal increase in domestic demand, the increase in steel mill profits, and the speculative demand driven by the weakening basis have all contributed. However, the possibility of exceeding expectations is low, and the upward driving force on the demand side is neutral [3]. Inventory - The inventory at steel mills has declined month - on - month, and their willingness to replenish inventory remains cautious. The port inventory has continued to decline, reducing the short - term port inventory pressure. There are still structural contradictions in domestic inventory, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. The upward driving force on the inventory side is moderately strong [3].