甲醇日报：特朗普决策多变，甲醇价格快速回调-20260401

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Trump's decision - making is changeable, leading to a rapid correction in methanol prices. The energy and chemical sectors have seen a peak and decline due to Trump's statements about the Iran situation. The tension between the US and Iran remains high as the shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz is still low and no actual peace talks have occurred. [2][3] - The port basis is high and firm. With the expected decline in April imports to a historical low, port destocking is related to the duration of Iranian methanol plant shutdowns. Coal - based methanol production has high profits and limited spring inspections. Inland factory inventories continue to decline, and traditional downstream industries have good performance. [3][4] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). [7][8][10] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import price differences (Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China). [7][31] III. Methanol Start - up, Inventory - Figures present the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated ones). [7][34] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200. [7][40] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. [7][48]