聚烯烃日报：中东地缘局势反复，盘面高位回落-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the continuous fermentation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the release of a cease - fire signal by the US, the market's concern about the conflict escalation has cooled, leading to a significant decline in the futures prices of energy and chemical products. The decline in coal prices has also dragged down the prices of olefins. For PE, the supply is expected to tighten further, and the demand is gradually recovering, but the high - price raw materials make the downstream cautious. In the short term, the price still has support under the background of supply contraction. For PP, the supply is expected to continue to shrink, and the export demand is rising. In the short term, the price still has strong support due to the supply reduction and strong support from raw material propane [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 8614 yuan/ton (-190), the closing price of the PP main contract is 9103 yuan/ton (-166). LL North China spot is 8500 yuan/ton (-300), LL East China spot is 8600 yuan/ton (-330), PP East China spot is 9150 yuan/ton (-200). LL North China basis is -114 yuan/ton (-110), LL East China basis is -14 yuan/ton (-140), PP East China basis is 47 yuan/ton (-34) [1] - Upstream Supply: PE operating rate is 76.2% (-3.8%), PP operating rate is 70.0% (-0.5%) [1] - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit is -1195.9 yuan/ton (+415.7), PP oil - based production profit is -1015.9 yuan/ton (+415.7), PDH - made PP production profit is -3107.4 yuan/ton (+13.7) [1] - Import and Export: LL import profit is -497.9 yuan/ton (+431.4), PP import profit is -1076.1 yuan/ton (+268.3), PP export profit is 254.2 US dollars/ton (-45.0) [1] - Downstream Demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 38.9% (+3.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 47.2% (+1.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 41.1% (+0.9%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.4% (+1.5%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: The domestic refineries are in the stage of concentrated load reduction, and the planned maintenance devices from the end of March to April will increase. The supply is expected to tighten. The demand is in the spring plowing season, and the rigid demand is gradually released, but the high - price raw materials make the downstream cautious. The inventory removal channel has not been continuously opened, but the basis has strengthened slightly. In the short term, the price still has support [3] - PP: The geopolitical conflict is still uncertain, and the supply of raw materials such as crude oil and propane is still a concern. The domestic refineries continue to reduce the load, and the PP operating rate is expected to decline to a low point in recent years. The supply continues to tighten, and the upstream inventory has been significantly reduced. The downstream operating rate is gradually rising, but the high - price PP squeezes the downstream profit, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The export window is open, and the export demand is rising. In the short term, the price still has strong support [4] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: Cautiously shrink the spread of LL05 - PP05 when it is high [5]