申万期货品种策略日报：黄金白银-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Precious metals rebounded significantly. The easing signal of the US - Iran conflict alleviated short - term suppression factors for precious metals. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to the elevated geopolitical risk, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the ongoing de - dollarization process. Gold has a long - term upward trend, and silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector trend with relatively larger fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For沪金2606, the closing price was 1020.10, up 5.22 (0.51%) from the previous day; for沪金2604, the closing price was 1010.000, down 1.020 (-0.10%); for沪银2606, the closing price was 18126, up 419 (2.37%); for沪银2604, the closing price was 18137, up 381 (2.15%) [2]. - Positions and Volumes: The持仓量 of沪金2606 was 180433, and the成交量 was 335355; for沪金2604, the持仓量 was 13530, and the成交量 was 23055; for沪银2606, the持仓量 was 241055, and the成交量 was 881875; for沪银2604, the持仓量 was 17199, and the成交量 was 24551 [2]. - Spot Premiums: The现货升贴水 of沪金2606 was -4.42, and that of沪金2604 was 5.68; for沪银2606, it was -95, and for沪银2604, it was -106 [2]. Spot Market - Prices and Changes: Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 1015.68, up 6.72 (0.67%); London gold closed at 4669.13, up 155.61 (3.45%); Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 18031, up 471 (2.68%); London silver closed at 75.14, up 5.10 (7.28%) [2]. - Price Ratios: The difference between沪金2606 and沪金2604 was 10.10 (previous value: 3.86); the difference between沪银2606 and沪银2604 was -11.00 (previous value: -49.00); the gold/silver ratio (spot) was 56.33 (previous value: 57.46); the ratio of Shanghai gold to London gold was 0.98; the ratio of Shanghai silver to London silver was 1.08 [2]. Inventory - Changes: The上期所黄金库存 remained unchanged at 106,644 kg; the上期所白银库存 decreased by 5760 kg to 368,667 kg; the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2604 ounces to 31,533,901 ounces; the COMEX silver inventory increased by 231248 ounces to 327,820,669 ounces [2]. Related Derivatives and Market Indicators - Market Indicators: The美元指数 decreased by 0.65 to 99.86; the标普500指数 increased by 184.80 to 6,528.52; the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.05% to 4.30%; the布伦特原油 price decreased by 5.36 to 103.53; the美元兑人民币 exchange rate decreased by 0.0049 to 6.9081 [2]. - ETF and CFTC Positions: The SPDR黄金ETF持仓 increased by 1.1 tons to 1,047.3 tons; the SLV白银ETF持仓 decreased by 14.1 tons to 15,274.3 tons; the CFTC投机者净持仓 for gold increased by 8458 to 168,327; the CFTC投机者净持仓 for silver increased by 2792 to 24,673 [2]. Macro News - Iran's Stance: Iranian President Pezeshkiyan stated on March 31 that Iran has the "necessary will" to end the war, provided that the other side meets Iran's demands, especially the guarantee of no further aggression. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that there is no negotiation but information exchange with the US, and Iran has not responded to the US's 15 proposals [3][4]. - US Stance: US officials are concerned about indirect negotiations through third - parties and believe direct negotiations are more efficient. Trump said the US will end the war with Iran in two to three weeks, and it's possible to reach an agreement with Iran before that [4][5].