格林大华期货早盘提示：钢矿-20260401

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The steel and ore market is expected to continue its oscillating trend. The support and pressure levels for rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore are given, and specific trading strategies are proposed [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore closed down. During the night session, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed down, while iron ore closed up [1]. Important Information - Two Chinese Hong Kong-flagged container ships successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz on March 31 [1]. - In March 2026, the floating value of the coking coal long-term agreement's steel linkage decreased by 24 yuan/ton compared to February [1]. - From March 23 - 29, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 3.3472 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 77.1% and a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [1]. - In March, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all returned to the expansion range, rising by 1.4, 0.6, and 1.0 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [1]. - Trump said the US would end the war with Iran in "two to three weeks" and might reach an agreement before that. Iran's President said Iran was willing to end the war on the premise of having its demands met [1]. - On March 31, Zhongtian Iron and Steel announced its prices for the first ten days of April, with rebar and wire rod prices remaining unchanged. The price of rebar in East China is 3,400 yuan/ton, and the price of wire rod is 3,700 yuan/ton [1]. - The central bank's monetary policy committee held its first-quarter regular meeting, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and stock policies and strengthen monetary policy regulation [1]. Market Logic - On March 31, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3,240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of Shanghai Ansteel/Bensteel hot-rolled coils was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [1]. - On March 31, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port increased by 1 yuan. For example, 60.8% PB fines were 783 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [1]. - On March 31, the spot market for port coke remained stable. The total inventory at the two ports increased compared to the previous working day [1]. - From March 23 - 29, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 26.267 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.436 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.263 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.547 million tons [1]. - From March 23 - 29, the global iron ore shipping volume was 24.724 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.719 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 18.751 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.843 million tons [1]. - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 176.6683 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.4735 million tons; the total inventory at 45 ports was 170.0031 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9809 million tons [2]. - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 89.7856 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.555 million tons [2]. - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a month-on-month increase of 1.25 percentage points; the profit rate of steel mills was 43.29%, a month-on-month increase of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3109 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0294 million tons [2]. - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 58.87%, a month-on-month increase of 2.3 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 3.87 percentage points. The average operating rate was 68.82%, a month-on-month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 4.51 percentage points [2]. Trading Strategy - It is expected that the steel and ore market will continue to oscillate. The support and pressure levels for rebar are 3,000 and 3,200 respectively; for hot-rolled coils, they are 3,180 and 3,350; for iron ore, they are 750 and 840 [2]. - For unilateral trading, short-term operations are recommended. For arbitrage, the strategy of going long on the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread can be cautiously held. Conservative investors can consider taking profits or reducing positions. The rebar - iron ore ratio is 3.86. The strategy of going long on rebar and short on iron ore is recommended to enter the market before the holiday and exit after the holiday [2].