格林大华期货早盘提示：尿素-20260401

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] Core View of the Report - The urea price is expected to oscillate within the range of 1830 - 1930 yuan/ton due to complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East, high - volatility of international crude oil, temporary shutdown of some urea production facilities in the Middle East, cautious mid - downstream purchasing at high prices, suspension of exports and release of reserve supplies [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 dropped 17 yuan to 1874 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1860 yuan/ton. The long - position decreased by 12709 lots to 262,000 lots, and the short - position decreased by 12692 lots to 297,000 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 209,000 tons, 1000 tons less than the previous working day and 12,000 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 88.9%, 1.2% higher than 87.7% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 700,500 tons, 108,400 tons less than the previous period, a 13.40% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 169,000 tons, a 2000 - ton month - on - month increase [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 51.2%, a 1.2% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 59.3%, a 5.9% month - on - month increase [1] - India's RCF urea import tender: The latest shipping date is March 31. It received 20 suppliers with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons [1] - Urea exports: In January 2026, urea exports were 307,900 tons, a 10.61% month - on - month increase; the average export price was 397.50 dollars/ton, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease. In February 2026, exports were 111,500 tons, a 63.78% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 398.52 dollars/ton, a 0.26% month - on - month increase [1] - International oil prices: NYMEX crude oil futures contract 05 dropped 1.50 dollars/barrel to 101.38 dollars/barrel, a 1.46% month - on - month decrease; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 05 rose 5.57 dollars/barrel to 118.35 dollars/barrel, a 4.94% month - on - month increase. China's INE crude oil futures contract 2605 dropped 13.7 to 749.3 yuan/barrel, and dropped 55.4 to 693.9 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is complex and changeable, leading to high - volatility of international crude oil. Some urea production facilities in the Middle East have shut down temporarily, causing overseas urea prices to rise sharply. Mid - downstream buyers are cautious about purchasing at high prices, while upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports have been urgently suspended, and reserve supplies have been released into the market [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]