碳酸锂日报（2026年4月1日）-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 dropped 7.97% to 157,200 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 163,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped 1,500 yuan/ton to 159,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 500 yuan/ton to 150,500 yuan/ton. The warehousing receipt inventory was concentratedly cancelled by 19,746 tons, leaving 11,318 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production data increased by 628 tons to 24,814 tons. In April, the expected production of lithium carbonate will increase by 4% month - on - month to 110,950 tons, with battery - grade lithium carbonate increasing by 4.17% to 81,190 tons and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increasing by 3.77% to 29,760 tons. On the demand side, the expected production of ternary materials in April will decrease by 3.85% month - on - month to 80,970 tons, while the production of lithium iron phosphate will increase by 5.53% to 450,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 616 tons to 99,489 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 552 tons to 46,657 tons, inventory in other links decreasing by 660 tons to 35,500 tons, and upstream inventory increasing by 724 tons to 17,332 tons [3]. - Affected by the news that the suspension of lithium ore exports from Zimbabwe might be alleviated, the price of lithium carbonate futures dropped significantly. Further observation of policy changes is needed. Recently, the price of lithium ore has been continuously strengthening, reflecting the reality and expectation of tight circulation at the ore end. The reduction caused by the suspension of lithium ore exports from Zimbabwe may appear from late April to May. If the suspension continues, the gap will continue to widen. If there is an expectation of resuming exports, there will be a situation of tight current supply and loose future expectation. The impact of concentrated shipments should be vigilant. Therefore, with high uncertainty currently, it is difficult for the price to maintain at a high level. Also, from the current spot procurement and sales rhythm and inventory rhythm, if the price strengthens rapidly in the short term, the spot trading rhythm may slow down, causing a divergence between futures and spot prices to some extent. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to low - buying opportunities in the future [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract decreased from 171,620 yuan/ton on March 30, 2026, to 157,200 yuan/ton on March 31, 2026, a drop of 14,420 yuan/ton; the closing price of the continuous contract decreased from 170,060 yuan/ton to 158,040 yuan/ton, a drop of 12,020 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The prices of lithium ore such as lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%, Li2O: 7% - 8%) remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 163,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped 1,500 yuan/ton to 159,500 yuan/ton, and the prices of various types of lithium hydroxide also decreased to varying degrees [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 107,000 yuan/ton. The prices of ternary precursors and cathode materials such as ternary precursor 523, ternary material 523, and lithium iron phosphate decreased to varying degrees, while the prices of some products such as manganese acid lithium and cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: The report presents charts of the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts of the prices of battery - grade metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 are shown [12][14][18]. - Spreads: Charts of spreads such as the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the spread between CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide are presented [18][20]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts of the prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 are provided [26][28][30]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts of the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 are shown [32][36]. - Inventory: Charts of the downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and inventory in other links of lithium carbonate from July 2025 to March 2026 are presented [39][41]. - Production cost: A chart of the production cost of lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2026, including the cash production profit of purchasing ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate, is shown [44].