黑色商品日报（2026年4月1日）-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range oscillation [1] - Iron ore: High - level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation with a weakening trend [1] - Coke: Oscillation with a weakening trend [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is affected by factors such as the decline in coal - coke prices and the recovery of manufacturing PMI. The fundamentals of rebar have no prominent contradictions and weak driving forces, so it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The iron ore market is influenced by supply - demand changes and geopolitical factors, with a high - level oscillation trend. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors like production, demand, and macro - disturbances, showing an oscillating and weakening trend. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are affected by cost, production, and external factors, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures price fell, the spot price decreased slightly, and the trading volume declined. The manufacturing PMI in March rose, but the coal - coke price drop affected the black commodity sentiment. The rebar fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term. The iron ore futures price dropped, the supply was affected by the hurricane in Australia and the increase in Brazil's shipments, the demand (hot metal output) increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [1] - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price dropped, the spot price decreased, the supply was basically normal with improved shipments, and the demand was supported by the increase in hot metal output. However, the delay in coke price increase and limited profit space made the procurement more cautious. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - Coke: The coke futures price dropped, the spot price was stable, the supply was relatively stable, and the demand was rigid but the procurement willingness was average. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, the spot price in some areas decreased, and many production enterprises planned to reduce production due to cost issues. The supply is expected to decrease, and the cost provides support, but the inventory is still high. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened, the spot price in some areas decreased, the production in March increased compared to the previous month but decreased compared to the same period last year, the demand had a purchase price from a steel mill, the cost increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the Middle East situation and cost changes need to be continuously monitored [2] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: Different contracts of various varieties have different spread values and changes, such as the 5 - 10 and 10 - 1 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [3] - Basis: The basis values and their changes of different contracts of various varieties are presented, for example, the basis of the 05 and 10 contracts of rebar [3] - Spot Prices: The latest spot prices and their changes in different regions of various varieties are shown, like the spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [3] - Profits and Spreads: Information on the profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) of different varieties is provided [3] 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][9][13] - Main Contract Basis: Charts display the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different contract periods [16][17][20][22] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts present the spreads of different inter - period contracts of various varieties, such as the 05 - 10 and 10 - 01 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil [25][26][30][31][32][34][36] - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, like the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [37][39][41] - Rebar Profits: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2021 to 2026 [42][46] 3.4 Black Research Team Members - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [48] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures field [48] - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [48] - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [49]