工业硅、多晶硅日报（2026年4月1日）-20260401

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 31, industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed weak oscillations. The main contract of industrial silicon 2605 closed at 8355 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.71%, and the position decreased by 18,817 lots to 202,000 lots. The main contract of polysilicon 2605 closed at 35,200 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.1%, and the position decreased by 128 lots to 34,456 lots [2]. - Industrial silicon is in a game between cost support and marginal inventory accumulation. After the increase in petroleum coke and electricity prices, the quotation center of spot - futures traders has risen significantly, and low - price goods in the market have disappeared. However, the overall market atmosphere is difficult to improve significantly, and it will operate in an oscillatory manner. Polysilicon is in a window period of policy implementation. Silicon material production is steadily increasing, the delivery of photovoltaic centralized projects has slowed down, and leading enterprises continue the dual - distribution strategy, so the industry inventory has the risk of increasing pressure. The market has not shown an obvious bottom - reaching signal and mainly follows the bottom - running logic [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8480 yuan/ton on March 30 to 8355 yuan/ton on March 31, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and varieties in different regions either decreased slightly or remained stable. The current lowest delivery price remained at 8800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 445 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon inventory increased in most places, with the social inventory increasing by 23,100 tons to 456,150 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 36,550 yuan/ton on March 30 to 35,200 yuan/ton on March 31, a decrease of 1350 yuan/ton. The spot prices of some varieties decreased, and the lowest delivery price dropped by 750 yuan/ton to 38,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium expanded to 3300 yuan/ton. The polysilicon inventory increased, with the social inventory increasing by 24,000 tons to 332,000 tons [4]. - Organic Silicon: The prices of DMC, raw rubber, and 107 glue in the East China market remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1000 yuan/ton to 15,800 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][11]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][19]. - Inventory: Charts present the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industrial silicon industry inventory, the weekly industrial silicon inventory change, the weekly polysilicon inventory, and the weekly DMC inventory [21][22][24]. - Cost - Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of aluminum alloys [27][29][32].