GF SECURITIES·2026-04-01 05:09Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating to the company, with a current price of 19.35 CNY/14.57 HKD and a fair value of 20.23 CNY/15.27 HKD [3]. Core Insights - The company has seen a nearly 30% growth in coal production over the past 25 years, demonstrating both growth and resilience [1]. - In 2025, the company plans to increase coal production to between 1.86 and 1.90 billion tons, with a cost reduction of 3% per ton [8]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of over 50% for the years 2026-2028, despite ongoing construction and planning projects [8]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to be 139,124 million CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of -7.3%, followed by 144,933 million CNY in 2025 (+4.2%), and reaching 169,596 million CNY in 2026 (+17.0%) [2][7]. - EBITDA is forecasted to be 43,460 million CNY in 2024, decreasing to 36,927 million CNY in 2025, and then increasing to 52,779 million CNY in 2026 [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 15,012 million CNY in 2024, dropping to 8,617 million CNY in 2025, and recovering to 14,502 million CNY in 2026 [2][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.50 CNY in 2024, decreasing to 0.86 CNY in 2025, and then increasing to 1.44 CNY in 2026 [2][7]. Production and Cost Analysis - In 2025, the company reported a significant increase in coal production and sales, with production at 1.82 billion tons (+6%) and sales at 1.71 billion tons (+4%) [8]. - The cost per ton of coal decreased by 4%, contributing to improved cash flow from performance compensation payments totaling 183.61 billion CNY [8]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from rising international coal prices and chemical product prices due to geopolitical factors, enhancing its profit elasticity [8]. - The company has multiple coal projects under construction, with a target of reaching approximately 250 million tons of coal production by 2030 [8].