2026年3月PMI点评：制造业PMI超季节性回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2026, the three major indices returned to the expansion range, indicating an improvement in economic sentiment. The manufacturing PMI increased by 1.4 pct to 50.4%, the non - manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.6 pct to 50.1%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 1.0 pct from the previous month [1]. - The manufacturing PMI rebounded beyond the seasonal level after the Spring Festival and returned to the expansion range. The production and demand both expanded, with demand improving more significantly. Price indicators fluctuated slightly, and the cost pressure remained but eased. The gap in enterprise scale narrowed, and small and medium - sized enterprises rebounded strongly. The export orders also increased [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, with the service industry performing better than the construction industry. The service industry business activity index rose above the critical point, while the construction industry business activity index rebounded but remained in the contraction range [1]. - In 2026, the situation of strong supply and weak demand may continue. The support for consumption policies may decline, and the growth of social retail sales may be weak. Investment in some sub - industries of manufacturing may be under pressure, the decline in real estate investment may narrow significantly due to the low base, and infrastructure investment may remain at a low level. Foreign trade growth is uncertain, and exports may face pressure in the second half of the year. The PPI decline is expected to narrow, with the annual PPI year - on - year high at around 1% [1]. - In 2026, the total supply of the bond market is expected to be stable, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Long - term bond adjustments may present opportunities, and it is recommended to grasp the band - trading opportunities. The 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.9%, and the 30 - year treasury bond active bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.9% - 2.4%. It is recommended to pay attention to the old 30 - year treasury bonds, 10 - year CDB bonds, and long - duration sinking capital bonds. The Fed's interest rate cut may be postponed to May 2026 or later, and bond market investment may be more favorable in the second half of the year [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Manufacturing PMI - Rebounded beyond the seasonal level after the Spring Festival and returned to the expansion range, mainly driven by the full resumption of work and production of enterprises after the Spring Festival, with significantly increased market activity. The average monthly increase in March in the past five years was about 0.4 pct, and this year's increase was higher than the seasonal level, indicating strong economic recovery momentum [1]. - Production and demand both expanded, with the production index (51.4%) and new order index (51.6%) rising by 1.8 pct and 3.0 pct respectively from the previous month, both entering the expansion range. The new order index increased more than the production index, suggesting that the demand side recovered faster than the supply side, and the supply - demand relationship was further optimized [1]. - Price indicators fluctuated slightly. The purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex - factory price index were 63.9% and 55.4% respectively, up 9.1 pct and 4.8 pct from the previous month. The ex - factory price index was still lower than the purchase price index of major raw materials, indicating that the cost pressure on enterprises remained, but the price difference narrowed, and the profit margin may improve [1]. - The gap in enterprise scale narrowed, with the manufacturing PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises being 51.6%, 49.0%, and 49.3% respectively, up 0.1 pct, 1.5 pct, and 4.5 pct from the previous month. The new export order index was 49.1%, still in the contraction range but up 4.1 pct from the previous month [1]. Non - manufacturing PMI - The service industry business activity index rose above the critical point. In March, it was 50.2%, up 0.5 pct from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. Industries such as railway transportation, telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and insurance were in the high - level prosperity range above 55.0%. After the Spring Festival, the demand for tourism, accommodation, and catering decreased [1]. - The construction industry business activity index rebounded but remained in the contraction range. In March, it was 49.3%, up 1.1 pct from the previous month, mainly affected by weather factors and project start - up rhythms. With the arrival of spring and the acceleration of project progress, the construction industry's prosperity is expected to further improve [1]. 2026 Economic Outlook - Consumption policy support may decline, and the growth of social retail sales may be weak. In fixed - asset investment, investment in some sub - industries of manufacturing may be under pressure due to over - capacity, the decline in real estate investment may narrow significantly due to the low base, and infrastructure investment may remain at a low level. Foreign trade growth is affected by geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions, and exports may face pressure in the second half of the year. The PPI decline is expected to narrow, with the annual PPI year - on - year high at around 1% [1]. Bond Market Outlook - In 2026, the total supply of the bond market is expected to be stable, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Long - term bond adjustments may present opportunities. The 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.9%, and the 30 - year treasury bond active bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.9% - 2.4%. It is recommended to pay attention to the old 30 - year treasury bonds, 10 - year CDB bonds, and long - duration sinking capital bonds. The Fed's interest rate cut may be postponed to May 2026 or later, and bond market investment may be more favorable in the second half of the year [1].