新能源及有色金属日报：消息面叠加需求低于预期，碳酸锂大幅减仓下跌-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On April 1, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures market experienced a significant decline due to news and lower - than - expected demand. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain high and volatile in Q2 2026, with a supply - demand imbalance in the first half of the year. Short - term trading within a range is recommended [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 169,000 yuan/ton and closed at 157,200 yuan/ton, a - 7.97% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 296,998 lots, and the open interest decreased from 237,761 lots to 217,916 lots. The current basis is - 940 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased by 953 lots to 31,064 lots [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 160,000 - 166,000 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 157,000 - 162,000 yuan/ton, also down 1,500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,360 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - Lithium salt plants have mostly resumed production, and the overall domestic supply is stable, with an increase in supply this week. The weekly total output of lithium carbonate is 24,814 tons, including 15,314 tons from spodumene, 3,227 tons from mica, 3,715 tons from salt lakes, and 2,558 tons from recycling [1] Inventory - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 99,489 tons, a week - on - week increase of 616 tons. The smelter inventory increased by 724 tons to 17,332 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 552 tons to 46,657 tons, and other inventories decreased by 660 tons to 35,500 tons. The lithium carbonate inventory has reached an inflection point [2] Comprehensive Review - The sharp decline in the lithium carbonate futures market was mainly due to news impacts: the withdrawal of funds that previously speculated on the shutdown of Australian mines due to high oil prices; the repeated news of the Zimbabwe export ban, which affected market sentiment; and the high - level volatility of lithium carbonate prices, with lower - than - expected lithium - battery production in April. The low - inventory level of the entire industry chain weakened the market's buffer capacity, and downstream acceptance of high - priced raw materials was limited [2] Strategy - Although the futures market declined with a reduction in positions, the lithium carbonate inventory is still at a low level. It is expected that the supply - demand imbalance will continue in the first half of the year, and the price will remain high and volatile in Q2. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Zimbabwe and Jianxiawo, marginal changes in inventory, and the atmosphere of the commodity market. Short - term trading within a range is recommended [3] - For trading strategies, short - term single - side trading is recommended, and no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading strategies are provided [3]