光大期货煤化工商品日报-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Urea: The urea futures price showed a weak oscillation on Tuesday, with the main 05 contract closing at 1,874 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.9%. The supply level of urea continued to rise, with the daily output reaching 221,900 tons, a daily increase of 2,800 tons. The demand follow - up sentiment varied greatly. The short - term urea spot market will have little change, and the pattern of strong supply and demand will continue. It is expected that the short - term urea futures price will continue the high - level oscillation trend, and may still fluctuate with international situations and energy prices. [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures price declined weakly on Tuesday, with the main 05 contract closing at 1,177 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.13%. The supply is expected to rise as maintenance enterprises resume production. The demand sentiment has declined, and the overall demand support is weak. The soda ash futures market's trading of external factors has gradually subsided, and the market trend has weakened. [1] - Glass: The glass futures price showed a weak trend on Tuesday, with the main 05 contract closing at 1,019 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.21%. The supply level of glass continued to decline, and the demand was still weak. Most glass enterprises still face inventory pressure, and the glass futures market sentiment is weak due to insufficient demand. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On March 31, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,707, with no change from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 300. - On March 31, the daily output of the urea industry was 221,900 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from the previous working day and 30,700 tons from the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 94.23%, a rise of 9.25 percentage points compared with 84.98% in the same period last year. - On March 31, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions in China were as follows: Shandong 1,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1,860 yuan/ton (unchanged), Hebei 1,880 yuan/ton (+10), Anhui 1,870 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu 1,910 yuan/ton (+10), and Shanxi 1,770 yuan/ton (unchanged). [4] Soda Ash & Glass - On March 31, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 1,363, with no change from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 1,454; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 100, with no change from the previous trading day. - On March 31, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were provided. - On March 31, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.52%, compared with 82.8% on the previous working day. - On March 31, the average price of the float glass market was 1,169 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the daily output was 143,600 tons/day, a daily decrease of 700 tons/day. - As of March 31, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 6.86 days, a month - on - month increase of 12.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.30%; the inventory of the industry's original glass was 7.9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.41%. [6][7] Chart Analysis - The report provides various charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, price spreads, and spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and glass, as well as the price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute. [9][11][13][17][18][20][21] Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of the resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. [24]