新能源及有色金属日报：矿端供应偏紧叠加现货需求回暖，铜价震荡走高-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Sell put options 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are oscillating between geopolitical games and fundamental support. Tightness at the mine end and deteriorating smelting profits provide bottom support, but macro uncertainties limit the upside. The unexpected reduction of domestic social inventories shows the resilience of domestic demand. It is recommended to maintain an interval operation strategy next week, with the main Shanghai copper contract focusing on the operating range of 91,000 - 97,500 yuan/ton, and mainly conduct buy hedging on dips. Spot enterprises are advised to purchase as needed, avoid chasing high prices, and lock in forward supplies when the import window opens [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On March 31, 2026, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 96,100 yuan/ton and closed at 95,340 yuan/ton, a -0.44% change from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 95,730 yuan/ton and closed at 96,760 yuan/ton, a 1.28% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - Yesterday morning, the Shanghai copper futures contract 2604 oscillated in a narrow range between 95,310 - 95,890 yuan/ton and closed at 95,440 yuan/ton. The monthly spread and import profit and loss were both in a small range. The purchasing and selling sentiment of Shanghai electrolytic copper weakened slightly. In the morning, the quotes of suppliers were differentiated, with different discounts for flat - water copper, high - grade copper, and non - registered copper. In the afternoon, the quotes were further lowered due to weak inquiries. The supply of wet - process copper was limited. It is expected that the Shanghai copper spot will recover stage by stage today. Purchasing at the beginning of the month and pre - holiday stocking will boost inquiry and transactions, supporting the convergence of discounts. However, abundant inventory and sufficient supply will still limit the repair range. The narrow brand spread also reflects the consumption - dominated market pattern [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary - Geopolitical situation: The US and Iran have released signals of easing. The US is seeking an agreement to end the war, and Iran is willing to end the war on the premise that its demands are met, but currently, no formal negotiation has started [3]. - Mine end: The CSPT decided not to set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate processing fees (TC/RCs) in the second quarter of 2026. Codelco and Anglo American have obtained approval from the Chilean antitrust regulatory agency to jointly operate the Andina and Los Bronces copper mines. The joint plan is expected to increase the annual output of copper concentrate by 120,000 tons from 2030 to 2051, with a cumulative additional release of 2.7 million tons of copper and an expected additional pre - tax value of at least $5 billion [4]. - Smelting and import: The Canadian federal government and Quebec are taking action to save the Horne Smelter. The Quebec government has proposed legislative amendments to give Glencore more time to meet stricter emission targets, and the federal government is considering Glencore's request for about C$150 million in environmental upgrade financial support [5]. - Consumption: Terminal consumption shows the characteristic of "domestic demand supporting the domestic inventory reduction process well". The actual consumption demand dominates the market, and social inventory is accelerating the reduction. The social inventory in Shanghai is 275,800 tons, a decrease of 45,300 tons from last Thursday. The inventory in Guangdong has also decreased significantly, and the spot has returned to a premium state. The spot market in Shandong is weak, and the consumption in North China has cooled down. Next week, the Shanghai copper spot market will continue the supply - demand game. The supply side has the expectation of a large number of non - registered copper arriving at the port, and the demand side's purchasing rhythm depends on copper prices [6][7]. - Inventory and warrants: LME warrants decreased by 175 tons to 362,425 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warrants decreased by 9,710 tons to 221,261 tons. On March 31, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 403,100 tons, a decrease of 24,300 tons compared with the previous week [8].