地缘再现缓和信号，贵金属价格反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions show marginal easing signals, but there is still uncertainty. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly bullish pattern, with the Au2606 contract oscillating between 980 yuan/gram and 1080 yuan/gram. The silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern, with the Ag2606 contract oscillating between 18,000 yuan/kilogram and 19,500 yuan/kilogram [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical tensions show easing signals. The US and Iran express willingness to end the war, but negotiations have not started yet [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 31, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1023.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1020.10 yuan/gram, a change of 0.51% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1040.82 yuan/gram, up 2.03% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 17,949.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,126.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 2.37% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 881,875 lots, and the open interest was 241,055 lots. The night session closed at 18,954 yuan/kilogram, up 4.57% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 31, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.309%, down 0.99 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.53%, a change of -0.45 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2606 contract, the long positions changed by 4,419 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by -695 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 432,534 lots, a change of -14.43% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2606 contract, the long positions changed by 4,883 lots, and the short positions changed by 6,775 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,341,387 lots, a change of -15.77% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 1,046.13 tons, down 3.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,274 tons, down 14 tons from the previous trading day [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On March 31, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 5.66 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 70.59 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 56.28, a change of -1.81% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 64.00, a change of -1.04% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 59,994 kilograms, a change of -34.18% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 345,804 kilograms, a change of 17.53% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]