雨水偏少，泰国胶水价格继续回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU, NR, and BR are all cautiously bullish [11][12] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of natural rubber is not significant in the short - term, with cost - side support and downstream tire demand showing certain resilience. NR is expected to perform better, and the price difference between RU and NR is expected to continue to narrow [11] - The cost of butadiene for BR has weakened, and the supply is expected to decline. With downstream tire demand having some support, the price of BR is expected to remain relatively strong [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,345 yuan/ton, a change of - 195 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,605 yuan/ton, a change of - 240 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 17,350 yuan/ton, a change of - 375 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 16,250 yuan/ton, a change of - 150 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,015 US dollars/ton, a change of - 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,980 US dollars/ton, a change of - 20 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 19,000 yuan/ton, a change of + 500 yuan/ton; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 17,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 350 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Tire Exports: From January to February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 730,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.07%. The export regions were significantly differentiated, with the export increment to Africa being the most prominent, and the export center continued to shift to emerging markets such as Africa and Southeast Asia [2] - Automobile Production and Sales: In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 31.7% and 23.1% respectively, and year - on - year decreases of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively [2] - Rubber Imports and Exports: From January to February 2026, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 1.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In the first two months of 2026, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 450,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15% [2] - Thailand's Natural Rubber Production in 2025: Thailand's natural rubber production was estimated to increase by 0.6% to 4.84 million tons. The harvesting area decreased slightly, but the yield per mu increased by 0.5% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On March 31, 2026, the RU basis was - 95 yuan/ton (+ 45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 645 yuan/ton (- 95), and the NR basis was 338.00 yuan/ton (+ 96.00) [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 79.55 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.60), the price of Thai glue was 80.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50), and the price of Thai cup lump was 59.50 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00) [6] - 开工率和库存: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 72.24% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 79.37% (+ 0.05%). The social inventory of natural rubber was 691,383 tons (+ 5,814), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,360,805 tons (- 4,066), the RU futures inventory was 125,410 tons (- 30), and the NR futures inventory was 43,646 tons (- 4,436) [7] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On March 31, 2026, the BR basis was 250 yuan/ton (+ 175). The ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 18,200 yuan/ton (+ 0) [8] - 开工率和库存: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 53.19% (- 12.39%). The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 9,260 tons (+ 650), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 32,250 tons (- 1,750) [9][10] Strategy - RU and NR: Cautiously bullish. The short - term supply pressure is not significant, the cost - side support is strong, and the downstream tire operating rate is rising slightly. NR is expected to perform better, and the spread between RU and NR is expected to narrow [11] - BR: Cautiously bullish. The cost has weakened, the supply is expected to decline, and the price is expected to remain relatively strong [12]