农产品日报：存栏偏高持续，猪价呈现整理态势-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig industry is cautiously bearish [3]. - The investment rating for the egg industry is neutral [6]. 2. Report Core Views - The pig market has a high inventory, and pig prices are in a consolidation state. The overall supply - demand relationship remains loose, and the core contradiction of relatively abundant supply is prominent. Although there are some supporting factors, the overall downward trend has not been reversed [1][2]. - The egg market has seen a phased decline in prices. After the Ching Ming Festival stocking, the market sentiment has become more pessimistic. The supply - demand situation is further relaxed, and egg prices still face phased pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2605 contract was 9770 yuan/ton, a change of - 235.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.35% [1]. - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 9.52 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 9.91 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.03 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 9.34 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.11 yuan/kg [1]. - Wholesale market: On March 31, the national average wholesale price of pork was 15.31 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.0% from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - Pig prices have declined slightly, with limited overall decline. Most regions' prices remained stable, and only some areas had a slight decline. At the end of the month, the reduction in the slaughter volume of the breeding side was relatively limited. The increased enthusiasm for secondary fattening in low - price areas supported market sentiment. However, the overall negative pattern has not been reversed. Low prices have not effectively driven downstream terminal consumption, and the process of alleviating market supply pressure is slow [2]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is to be cautiously bearish [3]. Egg Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2605 contract was 3440 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 13.00 yuan from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.38% [3]. - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.33 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.25 yuan/jin, a change of - 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 3.00 yuan/jin, a change of - 0.04 yuan [3]. - Inventory: On March 31, 2026, the production - link inventory was 0.9 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.31 days, both unchanged from the previous day [4]. Market Analysis - Egg spot prices have seen a phased decline, with prices in major production and sales areas generally falling. After the Ching Ming Festival stocking ended, market pessimism increased. The weakening of prices in production areas led to a follow - up decline in sales areas. The overall inventory level has increased compared to the previous period. The arrival volume in sales areas has increased, while downstream demand has been slow. The supply - demand situation has become looser. With more rainy days later, which is not conducive to fresh egg storage, the willingness of the breeding side to sell may remain strong, and egg prices still face phased pressure [5]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is neutral [6].