光大期货软商品日报（2026 年4月1日）-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton: On Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.3% to 69.98 cents per pound, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased 0.71% to 15,295 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 21,505 lots to 493,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,470 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan from the previous day. The USDA planting area forecast report shows that the U.S. cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to be 9.64 million acres, much higher than the previous forecast of 9.23 million acres. In the domestic market, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is likely to decline, but there are differences in the reduction range. The far - month contracts are relatively strong. Historically, when domestic and global cotton production and inventory - to - sales ratios decline year - on - year, the average annual increase of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices exceeds 9%, and the peak increase within the year exceeds 25%. As of now, the increase of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices in 2026 is lower than the historical average. In the short term, there are many market disturbances, and it is necessary to pay attention to planting intentions and the new round of cotton target price subsidy policy usually announced in early April. The market may fluctuate repeatedly in the short term [2]. - Sugar: A consulting company predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2026/27 crushing season may decrease by 14.2%, with the total sugar exports expected to be 29 million tons, lower than 33.8 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to drop to 40.3 million tons, compared with 43.5 million tons in the previous season. Ethanol production is expected to increase significantly, with the total production (including corn - based fuel) expected to grow by 10.7% to 42.58 billion liters. The spot price of raw sugar is suppressed by hedging orders, and the futures price returns to around 15.5 cents per pound. Domestic sugar mills are gradually ending the crushing season, and inventory is accumulating seasonally. Although domestic sugar prices are strong due to macro - sentiment and high raw sugar prices, other commodities are showing signs of returning to the fundamental logic. It is necessary to pay attention to the logic switch in the future. For now, it is treated as a range - bound market, waiting for short - selling opportunities, and paying attention to the sales and production data in March [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 135 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,555 yuan, up 117 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 16,691 yuan per ton, up 35 yuan, and the national spot price is 16,850 yuan per ton, up 27 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 33 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis is 42 yuan, up 13 yuan. The spot price in Nanning is 5,420 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan, and the spot price in Liuzhou is 5,440 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan [3]. 3.2 Market Information - Cotton: On March 31, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 12,420, down 15 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 489. The cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions on March 31 were: 16,691 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,850 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,889 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 17,036 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load on March 31 was 57.9, down 0.1 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 16.8, up 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 60.6, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 23.5, down 0.1 [4]. - Sugar: On March 31, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,420 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan from the previous trading day; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,440 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts on March 31 was 16,862, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [4][5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price index of cotton and sugar, with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][16]