燃料油日报：情绪溢价回落，关注局势发展-20260401

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The emotional premium in the crude oil market has significantly declined, which will drive the overall decline of the energy sector. However, before the two sides truly reach an agreement, the situation in the Middle East remains unclear, and the impact of oil supply disruptions will gradually become apparent. The market structure of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil will trend weaker only when there is a definite signal of easing in the US - Iran negotiations, and the market emotional premium will be repeatedly disturbed by news, so caution is needed [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 1.58%, at 4,433 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.9%, at 5,295 yuan/ton [1] - Iran's president stated that Iran is willing to end the war, but on the condition that its demands are met, especially the guarantee of no more aggression. Trump also hinted that the US will soon withdraw from Iran. The high - sulfur fuel oil has a relatively high supply share from the Middle East and a large exposure to geopolitical conflict risks. The increase in exports from Russia and Venezuela can partially offset the supply gap, and the inventory accumulated on land and in floating storage can be used as a short - term source of goods for downstream. If the Strait closure lasts too long, the fundamentals are expected to tighten further [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the direct export share from the Middle East is not high, refineries in the Asia - Pacific region have reduced their production due to insufficient raw materials, leading to a passive decline in output. In addition, the high premium in the diesel market has a boosting effect on the low - sulfur fuel oil market. Currently, the diesel crack spread remains strong, supporting the valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil [2] Strategy - For high - sulfur fuel oil, it is recommended to wait and see due to short - term sharp fluctuations - For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is recommended to wait and see due to short - term sharp fluctuations - No strategies are provided for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options [3]