新能源及有色金属日报：市场交投清淡，基本面维持弱势-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, with a supply - demand dual - weak pattern. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations. [3] - The polysilicon price is expected to continue a weak oscillation. The weak industrial silicon price makes the cost support for polysilicon weak, and the demand expectation from the "rush to export" before April has not been realized, with high inventory and difficult demand transmission in the industry chain. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8480 yuan/ton and closed at 8355 yuan/ton, a change of (- 145) yuan/ton or (- 1.71)%. The position of the main contract 2605 was 201,800 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on March 30, 2026 was 22,313 lots, a change of 24 lots from the previous day. [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,200 (- 50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 price was 8,500 - 8,600 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,500 - 8,600 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. [1] - As of March 26, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 560,000 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous week. [1] - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 13,800 - 14,300 (0) yuan/ton. After the festival, the demand for downstream polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy all decreased to varying degrees, and most of the post - festival inquiries were exploratory. [1] Supply - demand and Cost - The supply side remained in a loose state, and the pattern of oversupply continued. The demand side was continuously sluggish, and the war between the US and Iran restricted the export logistics of industrial silicon. Recently, the prices of petroleum coke and Xinjiang electricity have increased, and the cost support for industrial silicon is stable. [1][2] Strategy - The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. In the short - term, conduct range operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options. [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures oscillated and declined, opening at 36,760 yuan/ton and closing at 35,200 yuan/ton, a change of - 3.1% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 34,456 (34,584 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 165,316 lots. [3] - The spot price of polysilicon declined. The N - type material was 35.50 - 41.50 (- 0.75) yuan/kg, and the n - type granular silicon was 40.00 - 43.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory decreased, while the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 33.20, a change of - 3.49% month - on - month, the silicon wafer inventory was 26.98GW, a change of - 2.42% month - on - month, the weekly polysilicon output was 19,400.00 tons, a change of 1.00% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer output was 11.38GW, a change of - 3.40% week - on - week. [4] - In terms of silicon wafers, the domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 0.99 (0.00) yuan/piece, the N - type 210mm was 1.28 (- 0.02) yuan/piece, and the N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.04 (- 0.05) yuan/piece. [4] - In terms of battery cells, the high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the PERC210 battery cell was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the TopconM10 battery cell was about 0.38 (- 0.01) yuan/W; the Topcon G12 battery cell was 0.38 (- 0.01) yuan/W; the Topcon210RN battery cell was 0.39 (- 0.01) yuan/W. The HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W. [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm was 0.74 - 0.76 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.78 (0.00) yuan/W. [5] - Since the polysilicon price fell below the cost level of 40,000 yuan/ton, the market sentiment was pessimistic. The fundamental weakness and the impact of the US - Iran conflict on bulk commodities still existed. The spot market trading almost stagnated, the inventory reached a high level, the supply - demand game continued, the supply - side production cut pressure increased, and the downstream battery factories only maintained rigid - demand purchases and had a low acceptance of high - price goods. [5] Strategy - The polysilicon price is expected to continue a weak oscillation. In the short - term, conduct range operations, and the main contract is expected to maintain an oscillation in the short - term. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options. [6]