石油沥青日报：原油价格回调，供应维持偏紧态势-20260401

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price has corrected, and the supply remains tight. The asphalt futures market is affected by the crude oil price and geopolitical factors, with short - term volatility. If the terminal consumption recovers seasonally or remains stable, the inventory reduction expectation is strong, and the market structure is still supported. However, the asphalt futures market may be repeatedly disturbed by news, and both long and short positions lack a safety margin [1]. - For investment strategies, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for unilateral trading, and pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage at low prices for inter - period trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 31, the closing price of the main BU2606 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 4,512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton or 1.53% compared with the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 274,080 lots, a net increase of 211 lots, and the trading volume was 1,044,757 lots, a net increase of 83,313 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 4,636 - 4,690 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 4,320 - 4,570 yuan/ton in Shandong, 4,530 - 4,750 yuan/ton in South China, and 4,720 - 4,840 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in Northeast and South China rose slightly, while those in other regions remained stable. The crude oil and asphalt futures corrected, and the spot market sentiment was mainly wait - and - see, with a tight supply in some areas [1]. - Due to raw material shortages, the domestic asphalt refinery production schedule is expected to decline significantly in April. If the terminal consumption recovers seasonally or remains stable, the inventory reduction expectation is strong, and the market structure is supported. The asphalt futures market may be repeatedly disturbed by news, and both long and short positions lack a safety margin [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term sharp fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Inter - period: Pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage at low prices [2]. - Cross - variety: No recommendation [2]. - Spot - futures: No recommendation [2]. - Options: No recommendation [2].