棉价外强内稳，纸浆延续弱势

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][8] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. In China, due to increased consumption and potential production cuts, the medium - long - term cotton price center may rise, but short - term upside is limited by internal - external price differences and policy factors [2][3] - Sugar: Internationally, the raw sugar remains strong, and the Brazilian sugar - making ratio may decline. Domestically, there is an oversupply with high industrial inventory, and the upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is weak, but it has strong support due to the Middle East situation [5][7] - Pulp: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, but domestic demand is insufficient, and port inventory remains high. The pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level in the short term [8] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 15,295 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton (-0.58%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,691 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,850 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton. The USDA's 2026/27 crop planting intention report shows that the expected cotton planting area in the US is 9.64 million acres, up 3.9% year - on - year [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,398 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-0.79%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,295 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The consulting firm Safras&Mercado predicts that Brazil's sugar export volume in the 2026/27 season may decrease by 14.2% to 29 million tons, and production will drop to 40.3 million tons, while ethanol production will increase by 10.7% to 42.58 billion liters [4] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,124 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton (-1.12%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,790 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. In February 2026, the total European port inventory increased by 15.34% month - on - month and 2.99% year - on - year [7] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - International: The Middle East conflict causes oil price fluctuations, and the macro - level impact on cotton prices needs attention. The global supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly, but consumption also increased. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season is expected to be good, and inventory may be tight at the end of the year. There is a production cut expectation for new crops [2] Sugar - International: The raw sugar is strong, and the Brazilian sugar - making ratio may decline due to geopolitical conflicts. Domestic: The sugarcane harvest is delayed, production increases more than expected, and the industry is in a inventory - building stage with high industrial inventory and increased imports [5] Pulp - Supply: Overseas new production capacity is limited in the past two years, and major overseas broadleaf pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. If European and American consumption improves, the pressure on China's imports may be relieved. Demand: Although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity in China, terminal demand is insufficient, and port inventory remains high. In 2026, the demand for pulp is expected to improve [8] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy. Pay attention to new - year target price policies, planting area reduction, and potential reserve - releasing policies [3] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral strategy. Consider the sugar price as oscillating in the short term due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [7] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level in the short term due to high inventory [8]