格林大华期货早盘提示：棉花-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Oscillating [2] - Apple: Bullish with oscillations [5] - Logs: Oscillating [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The US Department of Agriculture's new - year cotton planting intentions exceeded market expectations. ICE cotton futures gave back previous gains, while domestic Zhengzhou cotton maintained an oscillating trend. The "Golden March" for downstream products is coming to an end, and the increase in subsequent orders remains to be seen. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a relatively strong stance [2]. - Apple cold - storage trading in production areas is somewhat light. Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, merchants' enthusiasm for restocking is low. The contradiction between high prices and limited consumer acceptance still exists, and the listing of seasonal fruits in April will suppress the upward space of futures prices. The market is also facing delivery disturbances in the short term, and the price may maintain an oscillating trend [5]. - The domestic log supply is highly dependent on imports. The inventory shows the characteristics of "de - stocking before the festival and inventory accumulation after the festival". The increase in import costs provides strong support for futures prices. The demand for logs is mainly from the real - estate construction sector, and the real - estate industry is still in an adjustment period, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation. In the short term, prices may oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan per cubic meter [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 397,954, and the open interest was 1,077,502. The settlement prices were 15,330 for May, 15,460 for September, and 15,880 for January. The settlement price of the ICE May contract was 70.00, down 19 points; July was 72.13, down 29 points; December was 74.34, down 27 points, with a trading volume of about 113,000 lots [2]. Important Information - From January to February 2026, the yarn output of large - scale enterprises was 3.308 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% [2]. - In December 2025, the sales of clothing and clothing fabrics by US wholesalers were $13.443 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.47% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.63% [2]. - Last week, 3,700 tons of US cotton were inspected, with a cumulative inspection of 3.0544 million tons [2]. - On March 30, the cotton yarn futures reduced trading volume and open interest, and the price declined, while the spot price remained stable. The sales price of cotton yarn from spinning enterprises was slightly weak, and some enterprises with rising inventories sold at discounted prices. The operating rate of the downstream weaving market remained at a high level, with good sales of 40S compact - spun yarn, and the supply shortage of about 60S high - count yarn was alleviated, but the price remained firm [2]. Market Logic - The US Department of Agriculture's new - year cotton planting intentions exceeded market expectations, causing ICE cotton futures to give back previous gains. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton maintained an oscillating trend. The "Golden March" for downstream products is coming to an end, and the increase in subsequent orders remains to be seen. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a relatively strong stance [2]. Trading Strategy - For the 05 contract, gradually roll over long positions below 15,300 yuan per ton to the 09 contract and control the position [2]. Apple Market Review - The apple futures price declined, and the main contract was shifted. The closing price of the 2605 contract was 9,826 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.38% [5]. Important Information - In Shandong, the price of bagged late - Fuji apples (80) was 3.80 - 4.00 yuan per catty (striped red, first - and second - grade); the price of bagged late - Fuji apples (above 80) was 3.00 - 3.50 yuan per catty (striped red, general goods); the price of bagged late - Fuji apples (above 80) of the third - grade was 2.50 - 2.80 yuan per catty; the price of striped 80 first - and second - grade apples was 4.10 - 4.50 yuan per catty [5]. - In Shaanxi, the price of bagged late - Fuji apples (starting from 70) of semi - commercial grade was 4.70 - 4.80 yuan per catty. In the Weinan production area, there was a small amount of merchant - sourced goods left in cold storage, mainly self - shipped, with little procurement for transfer. The market was stable. The current price of late - Fuji apples (starting from 75) of general goods was about 4.00 yuan per catty [5]. - In Gansu, the price of late - Fuji apples (above 75) of mountain - grown semi - commercial grade in Renda Town was about 4.50 yuan per catty [5]. Market Logic - Apple cold - storage trading in production areas is somewhat light. Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, merchants' enthusiasm for restocking is low. The contradiction between high prices and limited consumer acceptance still exists, and the listing of seasonal fruits in April will suppress the upward space of futures prices. The market is also facing delivery disturbances in the short term, and the price may maintain an oscillating trend [5]. Trading Strategy - Maintain a bullish view on the 05 contract. Reduce long positions below 10,000 yuan per ton [5]. Logs Market Review - The log futures price declined. The closing price of the main 2605 contract was 820.0 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 0.67% [7]. Important Information - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from yesterday and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from yesterday and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week [7]. - As of January 23, the total domestic coniferous log inventory decreased by 3.11% to 2.49 million cubic meters; the radiata pine inventory decreased by 2.3% to 2.12 million cubic meters, and the inventories of North American timber and spruce - fir both decreased by 10,000 tons [7]. - The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 from last week [7]. Market Logic - The domestic log supply is highly dependent on imports, with New Zealand accounting for 64% of imports. From January to February 2026, New Zealand's log shipping rhythm first decreased and then increased. The inventory shows the characteristics of "de - stocking before the festival and inventory accumulation after the festival". The increase in import costs provides strong support for futures prices. The demand for logs is mainly from the real - estate construction sector, and the real - estate industry is still in an adjustment period, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation. In the short term, prices may oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan per cubic meter [7]. Trading Strategy - The 05 contract of logs will oscillate [7].