华润燃气：派息率提升与回购有望夯实价值-20260401

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 22.95 [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 97.73 billion for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 3.55 billion, down 13.2% year-on-year, which was below the forecast of HKD 3.85 billion [1] - The company has improved its gross margin by optimizing gas source costs, with a retail gas gross margin of HKD 0.54 per cubic meter, up by HKD 0.01 year-on-year [2] - The company plans to continue share buybacks and has increased its dividend payout ratio to approximately 61%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8 percentage points [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2025 was HKD 97.73 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 4.8% [10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was HKD 3.55 billion, down 13.2% year-on-year [10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at HKD 1.53 [10] Gas Sales and Demand - Retail gas sales volume increased by 0.7% year-on-year to 40.18 billion cubic meters, outperforming the national average growth rate of 0.1% [2] - The residential gas volume grew by 4.9% year-on-year to 10.53 billion cubic meters, while industrial gas volume saw a slight increase of 0.3% to 20.48 billion cubic meters [2] Business Development - The company added 2.152 million new residential users in 2025, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, with the proportion of old house connections rising from 21.4% in 2024 to 23.1% in 2025 [3] - The company’s comprehensive energy business achieved a revenue of HKD 1.97 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with a gross profit of HKD 420 million, up 16.0% year-on-year [4] Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts a decrease in net profit for 2026 and 2027 by 17% and 22% respectively, adjusting the net profit estimates to HKD 3.54 billion and HKD 3.69 billion [5][28] - The target price of HKD 22.95 is based on a 15x PE for 2026 estimates, reflecting a premium over the five-year historical average of 11x PE [5]