嘉里物流：25年市场需求偏弱，公司盈利显韧性-20260401

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 8.20 HKD [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 56.34 billion HKD for the year 2025, a decrease of 3.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.41 billion HKD, down 8.5% year-on-year, which was above expectations due to better-than-expected performance in international freight forwarding [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain its earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027, with net profits projected at 1.44 billion HKD and 1.54 billion HKD respectively, and a new forecast for 2028 at 1.62 billion HKD [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The international freight forwarding business generated revenue of 42.33 billion HKD, down 3.4% year-on-year, with a segment profit of 1.87 billion HKD, down 3.9% year-on-year, primarily due to weak international trade demand [2]. - The comprehensive logistics business reported revenue of 14.01 billion HKD, a decrease of 3.0% year-on-year, with a segment profit of 1.26 billion HKD, an increase of 0.9% year-on-year [3]. Regional Performance - Profit contributions from various regions showed mixed results: Mainland China profit increased by 7.2% to 720 million HKD, while profits from the Americas decreased by 37.4% to 380 million HKD [2]. - The Asia and Oceania markets experienced significant growth, with profits increasing by 22.8% and 36.9% respectively, driven by the shift of manufacturing to Southeast Asia and South Asia [3]. Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about its long-term prospects, particularly in Southeast Asia, where it aims to leverage its diversified logistics solutions to smooth out market fluctuations and demonstrate profit resilience [1][4]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and tariff policies are expected to impact global macroeconomic and trade demand, but the company remains confident in its strategic positioning [4].