ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2026-04-01 04:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (downgraded)" [3] Core Views - The company has significantly improved its utilization rates and logistics, leading to a substantial reduction in losses [3] - The airline industry is expected to recover in 2026, driven by a slowdown in supply growth and high load factors, despite facing high fuel cost pressures due to geopolitical tensions [5] - The company's operational adjustments have resulted in a turnaround, with a projected net profit of 857 million yuan in 2025, compared to a loss in the previous year [5] Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 182.26 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.61% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 857 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 150.5% [5] - The company plans to expand its fleet to 968 aircraft by 2026, with a growth rate of 1.68% [5] - The average passenger load factor improved to 85.74%, an increase of 1.36 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The average aircraft utilization rate increased to 9.79 hours, up by 1.77 hours year-on-year [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2026 is 203.95 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12% [3] - The projected net profit for 2026 is 1.49 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 74% [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2026 is estimated at 69.6x, decreasing to 12.6x by 2028 [5]