2026年3月PMI数据点评：制造业景气重回扩张区间，产需两端均有所改善

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2026, the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, with the production and demand sides both improving. The non - manufacturing and comprehensive PMIs also returned to the expansion range [2][3] - The improvement in demand on the market's demand side was stronger than that on the supply side, but the differentiation between domestic and foreign demand may continue. Domestic demand in the market may remain insufficient in the short term, and policy support is needed to boost demand [4] - There are positive signals in prices, but the gap between purchase prices and ex - factory prices has widened, which may compress corporate profit margins [5] - The PMIs of the construction and service industries have both increased, and the service industry PMI has returned to the expansion range. The construction industry remains confident in its future development [5] - The target range for the 10 - year treasury bond is expected to be 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5% [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PMI Data in March - The manufacturing PMI in March was 50.4%, a 1.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous value, higher than the market expectation. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase, and the comprehensive PMI was 50.5%, a 1.0 - percentage - point increase [2][3] - After the Spring Festival, as enterprises resumed work and production, the production index increased by 1.8 percentage points, the new order index increased by 3.0 percentage points, and the new export order index increased by 4.1 percentage points. The production and operation activity expectation index was 53.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase [4] 3.2 Price Situation - The purchase price of major raw materials increased by 9.1 percentage points to 63.9%, and the ex - factory price increased by 4.8 percentage points to 55.4%. The ex - factory price index has remained in the expansion range for three consecutive months [5] 3.3 Industry Situation - The construction industry PMI was 49.3%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous value, and the service industry PMI was 50.2%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase. The business activity expectation index of the construction industry was 50.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease but still in the expansion range [5] 3.4 Bond Market Viewpoint - The target range for the 10 - year treasury bond is expected to be 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5%. The economic recovery is accelerating, and factors such as inflation, monetary policy, and real estate need to be considered [5]