申万期货品种策略日报：铂、钯-20260401

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for platinum and palladium is bullish in the long - term [4] Report's Core View - The long - term core logic for being bullish on platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Despite significant short - term pullbacks, the long - term value of platinum and palladium as reserves is highlighted under the de - dollarization trend, and the supply - demand fundamentals in the industrial sector are favorable [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Platinum Futures: For contracts pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 493.10, 493.55, and 489.90 respectively. The price changes are 0.80, 2.45, and 0.15, with percentage changes of 0.16%, 0.50%, and 0.03%. The trading volumes are 7351, 271, and 105 respectively, and the open interests are all 13298. The spot premiums are 1.96, 1.51, and 5.16 [1] - Palladium Futures: For contracts pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 361.40, 361.10, and 358.70 respectively. The price changes are 3.20, 2.50, and 0.50, with percentage changes of 0.89%, 0.70%, and 0.14%. The trading volumes are 2782, 69, and 23 respectively, and the open interests are all 4904. The spot premiums are - 5.4, - 5.1, and - 2.7 [1] Spot Market - Platinum Spot: The price of Shanghai platinum is 495.06 yuan/gram, with a change of 5.41 and a percentage change of 0.011%. The price of London platinum is 1908.00 US dollars/ounce, with a change of - 12.00 and a percentage change of - 0.006%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 758.00 yuan/gram and 850.00 yuan/gram respectively, with changes of 16.00 and 0.00 and percentage changes of 0.022% and 0.000% [1] - Palladium Spot: The price of Chinese palladium is 356.00 yuan/gram, with a change of 12.00 and a percentage change of 0.035%. The price of Russian palladium is 3735.53 rubles/gram, with a change of 110.32 and a percentage change of 0.030% [1] Inventory - Platinum Inventory: The current NYMEX inventory is 541,249.04 ounces, a decrease of 12991.8 ounces compared to the previous value. The registered warehouse receipts are 311,333.49 ounces, a decrease of 1006.9 ounces. The trading volume of the Gold Exchange is 792.11 million yuan, a decrease of 3814.5 million yuan, and the trading volume is 16.00 kilograms, a decrease of 80.0 kilograms [1] - Palladium Inventory: The current NYMEX inventory is 247,765.39 ounces, a decrease of 608.3 ounces compared to the previous value. The registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 211,887.35 ounces [1] Related Derivatives and Indexes - Related Indexes: The current dollar index is 99.88, a decrease of 0.62 compared to the previous value. The S&P 500 index is 6528.52, an increase of 184.80. The US Treasury yield is 4.30, a decrease of 0.05. The Nasdaq index is 21590.63, an increase of 795.99. The Dow Jones index is 46341.51, an increase of 1125.37. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate remains unchanged at 6.92 [1] - Related Derivatives: The current prices of Shanghai Gold contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608 are 1010.00, 1020.10, and 1023.30 respectively, with changes of - 1.02, 5.22, and 5.38. The current prices of Shanghai Silver contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608 are 18137.00, 18126.00, and 18114.00 respectively, with changes of 381, 419, and 432 [1] Macro News - Fed Policy: The Fed keeps the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, and the dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 - 2027, indicating a more conservative stance [2] - Geopolitical Event: The military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - Fed Personnel Nomination: Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but the nomination faces opposition in the Senate [2] - PBOC Meeting: The People's Bank of China emphasizes promoting the high - quality development of the modern payment system in 2026 [3] Comments and Strategies - Short - term Situation: As of March 3, 2026, platinum and palladium have pulled back significantly from their highs, mainly due to Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which has led to short - term strengthening of the US dollar [4] - Long - term Logic: The long - term bullish logic remains intact, supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the global central bank's gold - buying spree, and favorable supply - demand fundamentals in the industrial sector [4]