流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题：4月资金面关注什么

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity environment remains stable, with short-term rates continuing to decline, benefiting from a stable liquidity environment [5][8] - For April, the report highlights that the initial liquidity is expected to ease, with a focus on the government bond issuance plan, particularly the long-term supply schedule [5][8] - The report notes that the total issuance of local government bonds is expected to reach 31,988 billion yuan by April 5, 2026, with 16,618 billion yuan in long-term bonds, accounting for 52% of the total [12][39] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the local government bond issuance plan for the second quarter will be significant, with a total planned issuance of 21,100 billion yuan [13][40] - It is mentioned that the issuance of replacement bonds is progressing slower than in the same period of 2025, which may lead to a higher actual issuance scale in the second quarter [13][40] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the long-term local government bonds, particularly focusing on the yield spread between 30-year and 20-year bonds [41][42] Group 3 - The report tracks the interbank certificate of deposit (CD) market, noting that the issuance increased to 7,705 billion yuan from March 23 to March 27, 2026, with a net financing of 723 billion yuan [53][54] - The report highlights that the overall issuance success rate for CDs remains high at 93%, with the highest success rate for 9-month CDs at 97% [53][54] - The report indicates that the secondary market for CDs has maintained low yields, with rates for various maturities showing slight declines [74]