申银万国期货早间策略-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In Q2 2026, as the market enters the intensive disclosure period of Q1 earnings reports, the market logic will shift from "speculating on expectations" to "looking at performance". High - valuation growth stocks face pressure from rising risk - free rates and denominator compression, while low - valuation, high - dividend, and cash - flow - stable assets have stronger defensive properties. Market volatility may remain high due to external uncertainties [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 4433.80, 4413.40, 4375.80, and 4293.40 respectively, with declines of - 33.00, - 33.60, - 34.00, and - 31.80, and percentage declines of - 0.74%, - 0.76%, - 0.77%, and - 0.74%. The trading volumes were 26954.00, 3113.00, 57873.00, and 9724.00, and the open interest changes were - 68.00, 627.00, 2237.00, and 1402.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 2824.40, 2821.40, 2804.00, and 2764.20 respectively, with declines of - 5.40, - 4.60, - 9.20, and - 7.40, and percentage declines of - 0.19%, - 0.16%, - 0.33%, and - 0.27%. The trading volumes were 12081.00, 1923.00, 28712.00, and 5097.00, and the open interest changes were 226.00, 672.00, - 246.00, and - 597.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 7571.20, 7517.60, 7413.80, and 7240.20 respectively, with declines of - 125.40, - 122.60, - 135.60, and - 132.40, and percentage declines of - 1.63%, - 1.60%, - 1.80%, and - 1.80%. The trading volumes were 34136.00, 4606.00, 82703.00, and 15926.00, and the open interest changes were - 1275.00, 1163.00, - 4210.00, and - 1676.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 7573.60, 7498.00, 7379.40, and 7160.00 respectively, with declines of - 118.40, - 123.00, - 126.60, and - 124.00, and percentage declines of - 1.54%, - 1.61%, - 1.69%, and - 1.70%. The trading volumes were 51526.00, 6378.00, 146234.00, and 29335.00, and the open interest changes were 1442.00, 1340.00, 2060.00, and 1830.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 20.40, - 3.00, - 53.60, and - 75.60 respectively, compared to previous values of - 19.40, - 2.80, - 55.60, and - 72.00 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Index Performance: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 4450.05, 2826.12, 7617.33, and 7639.38 respectively, with percentage declines of - 0.93%, - 0.25%, - 1.76%, and - 1.44% [1] - Industry Performance: Among different industries, the energy industry had a 1.29% increase, while the raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecommunications, and public utilities industries had declines of - 1.64%, - 0.94%, - 1.29%, - 0.86%, - 1.82%, - 1.10%, - 2.17%, - 2.21%, and 0.07% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - CSI 300 Basis: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next relative to the CSI 300 were - 16.25, - 36.65, - 74.25, and - 156.65 respectively [1] - SSE 50 Basis: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next relative to the SSE 50 were - 2.67, - 5.47, - 19.87, and - 59.67 respectively [1] - CSI 500 Basis: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next relative to the CSI 500 were - 41.73, - 90.93, - 192.33, and - 361.93 respectively [1] - CSI 1000 Basis: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next relative to the CSI 1000 were - 46.25, - 121.85, - 240.45, and - 459.85 respectively [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3891.86, 13478.06, 8242.00, and 3184.95 respectively, with percentage declines of - 0.80%, - 1.81%, - 1.49%, and - 2.70% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 24788.14, 51063.72, 6528.52, and 22680.04 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.15%, - 1.58%, 2.91%, and 0.52% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - US - Iran Relations: US President Trump is willing to end the military action against Iran, and the US Defense Secretary said the "primary task" is to seek an agreement to end the war. Iran is also willing to end the war if its demands are met. Iran's Foreign Minister said the current situation is information exchange rather than negotiation [2] - Iran's Military Announcement: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it will target 18 US information and communication technology and artificial intelligence - related companies in the Middle East [2] - China - Pakistan Talks: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar held talks and put forward five initiatives on the Gulf and Middle East situation [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Transportation Policy: During the 2026 Tomb - sweeping Festival holiday, 7 - seat and below small passenger cars on expressways will be exempt from tolls from 0:00 on April 4th to 24:00 on April 6th [2] - Internet of Things Industry: Nine departments jointly issued an action plan to promote the innovation and development of the Internet of Things industry, aiming to reach a scale of 10 billion - level and 15 ten - million - level application areas, with the number of IoT terminal connections reaching 10 billion and the core industry scale exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan by 2028 [2] - Battery Industry: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will compile the "15th Five - Year Plan" for the development of new batteries, track key operating indicators, and prevent low - level redundant construction [2] - Electric Bicycle Industry: Mainstream domestic electric two - wheeled vehicle brands such as Yadea, Tailing, Aima, and Ninebot plan to raise the prices of most of their models from April 1st, with Yadea increasing the ex - factory price of all product categories by over 300 yuan [2] 3.7 Stock Index Views - Market Performance: US stock indices rose significantly. In the previous trading day, the stock index rose first and then fell, with the household appliance sector leading the gain and the coal sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.00 trillion yuan. On March 27th, the margin trading balance increased by 7.8 billion yuan to 2.598613 trillion yuan [2] - Market Outlook: In Q2 2026, as the market enters the intensive disclosure period of Q1 earnings reports, the market logic will shift from "speculating on expectations" to "looking at performance". High - valuation growth stocks face pressure from rising risk - free rates and denominator compression, while low - valuation, high - dividend, and cash - flow - stable assets have stronger defensive properties. Market volatility may remain high due to external uncertainties [2]