方正中期期货生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar: International sugar supply surplus has improved, and domestic sugar market fundamentals are also improving. Zhengzhou sugar may rise in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously after the main contract stabilizes on a pullback [3]. - Pulp: The cost support of pulp mills is emerging, but the improvement in fundamentals is limited, and the upward space of pulp may be restricted. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [4]. - Double - offset Paper: The spot market is stable, but the demand improvement in the peak season is limited. It is recommended to operate in the range with a short - bias [6]. - Cotton: The medium - term support of the cotton market remains unchanged, and the short - term futures price is expected to return to a relatively strong shock. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [7]. - Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector - Apple: There is limited new driving force, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate in the high - level range. It is recommended to return to a wait - and - see state [8]. - Jujube: The futures price shows characteristics of having a ceiling and a floor. It is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points in the 2605 contract, and for long - position holders, it is recommended to buy protective put options at the same time. Cautious investors can hold the reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Futures - Apple 2605: Return to wait - and - see. The supply side provides support, but the consumption support is insufficient, and the futures price continues to fluctuate in the high - level range. The support interval is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure interval is 11000 - 11500 [18]. - Jujube 2605: Short - term buying on dips. The expected production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory begins to peak and decline. The support interval is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure interval is 9500 - 9800 [18]. - Soft Commodity Futures - Sugar 2605: Go long after stabilization. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved, and the supply and demand fundamentals in China are improving, but the supply is still sufficient. The support interval is 5250 - 5300, and the pressure interval is 5600 - 5650 [18]. - Pulp 2605: Short on rallies. The rise in the outer - disk price of broad - leaf pulp drives the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the improvement in the supply and demand of bleached softwood pulp is limited. The support interval is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure interval is 5350 - 5400 [18]. - Double - offset Paper 2605: Operate in the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support interval is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure interval is 4250 - 4300 [18]. - Cotton 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The significant increase in imported cotton and cotton yarn exerts short - term pressure, but the outer - disk stabilizes and rebounds, and the medium - term upward expectation of the futures price remains unchanged. The support interval is 14900 - 15000, and the pressure interval is 16300 - 16500 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In January 2026, the export volume of fresh apples was about 99,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.14% and a year - on - year increase of 9.44%. In February, it was about 79,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. As of March 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 4.4179 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 266,400 tons. As of March 26, it was 3.8947 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 294,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 217,900 tons [19]. - Spot Market Situation: In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in stock is stable, and the transaction in cold storage is average. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage packaging volume is acceptable for the Tomb - sweeping Festival. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, the overall sales speed is average, and the mainstream price is stable [19][20][21]. - Jujube Market: As of March 5, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 7.39%. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is stable [22]. - Sugar Market: In the first half of March, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 29.67% year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio decreased by 25.27 percentage points year - on - year, and the sugar production decreased by 88.60% year - on - year. In India, the sugar - making work in the 2025/26 crushing season is coming to an end. In Thailand, as of March 25, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume increased by 8.81% year - on - year, and the sugar production increased by 12.01% year - on - year. As of March 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased by 6 week - on - week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 219,700 tons. India announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 was 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of March 24, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 95,804 contracts [24]. - Pulp Market: After the Spring Festival, the price of South American BHK pulp increased by $10 per ton in February, and the seller announced another price increase of $20 per ton in March, which led to cautious waiting and seeing from buyers. The domestic market transaction is weak, many factories shut down, and the port inventory increases by 205,000 tons [26]. - Double - offset Paper Market: Last Thursday, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with the previous Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points week - on - week. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed decreased. This week, the operating load rate of double - offset paper was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points week - on - week, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points week - on - week [27]. - Cotton Market: As of March 28, the net export contract of Egyptian cotton in two weeks was 1,544 tons, and the signing volume of India and Pakistan increased, while China cancelled some contracts. As of March 30, 2026, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 47,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04% [28]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review: The closing prices of apple 2605, jujube 2605, sugar 2605, pulp 2605, and cotton 2605 were 9826, 8750, 5398, 5124, and 15295 respectively, with daily declines of 37, 25, 43, 58, and 90 respectively, and daily decline rates of 0.38%, 0.28%, 0.79%, 1.12%, and 0.58% respectively [29]. - Spot Market Review: The spot prices of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton were 4.45 yuan per catty, 9.40 yuan per kilogram, 5420 yuan per ton, 5180 yuan (Shandong Yinxing), 4350 yuan (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin), and 16850 yuan per ton respectively. The环比 changes were 0, - 0.10, - 40, 0, 0, and 27 respectively, and the year - on - year changes were 0.45, - 5.30, - 750, - 1300, - 800, and 1969 respectively [34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple: The 5 - 10 spread is 1083, with a week - on - week decrease of 17 and a year - on - year increase of 954. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [54]. - Jujube: The 5 - 9 spread is - 360, with a week - on - week increase of 25 and a year - on - year increase of 5. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. - Sugar: The 5 - 9 spread is - 33, with a week - on - week decrease of 7 and a year - on - year decrease of 139. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. - Cotton: The 5 - 9 spread is - 135, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 5. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [54]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt quantities of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are 0, 4269, 16862, 189631, and 12420 respectively. The环比 changes are 0, - 4, 0, 1468, and - 15 respectively, and the year - on - year changes are 0, - 2796, - 10548, - 185592, and 3170 respectively [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned.