申万期货品种策略日报：国债-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The market capital is expected to remain loose, with increased volatility in the equity market. As the Middle - East situation gradually eases, the prices of treasury bond futures are expected to stabilize [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Volume: The prices of treasury bond futures showed mixed changes. For example, the T2606 contract rose 0.01%, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. The open interest of T2606 increased by 9,752, and the trading volume was 81,297 [2] - Arbitrage Situation: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - Short - term Market Interest Rates: The short - term market interest rates showed mixed changes. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate rose 2bp, DR007 interest rate fell 0.04bp, and GC007 interest rate fell 3.8bp [2] - China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields: Yields of key - term treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10Y treasury bond yield rose 0.52bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 44.87bp [2] - Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields: Yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds mostly declined. The 10Y US treasury bond yield fell 5bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield fell 6bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield fell 0.2bp [2] Macro News - Central Bank Operations: On March 31, the central bank conducted 32.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with a net investment of 15 billion yuan [3] - International Situation: Trump said he was willing to end the military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. Iran was willing to end the war on the condition that its demands were met. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar put forward five proposals on the Gulf and Middle - East situation [3] - Monetary Policy Meeting: The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its first - quarter meeting in 2026, suggesting to combine incremental and existing policies, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and keep liquidity abundant [3] - Economic Data: In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI output indexes all returned to the expansion range, with values of 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively [3] Industry Information - Interest Rate Changes: Most money - market interest rates declined. For example, the 1 - day and 7 - day weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledge - style repurchase and inter - bank lending all declined [3] - US Treasury Bond Yields: Most US treasury bond yields declined, except for the 30 - year yield which rose slightly [3]