原油日报：地缘局势依然主导油市，俄罗斯石油码头连续遇袭-20260401

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have led to an unprecedentedly complex environment in the crude oil market, with a relatively high upside risk for oil prices. The short - term volatility of oil prices remains high due to geopolitical factors, and it is currently risky to participate in the crude oil market [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data - As of the close on March 31, the price of light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.50 to $101.38 per barrel, a decrease of 1.46%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose $5.57 to $118.35 per barrel, an increase of 4.94%. The SC crude oil main contract fell 7.39% to 694 yuan per barrel [1] - OPEC's oil production in March dropped significantly to the lowest level since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic in June 2020. Production decreased by 7.3 million barrels per day month - on - month to 21.57 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Only Venezuela and Nigeria increased production [1] - The Mexican government and scientists are investigating an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico caused by natural seepage, and are reviewing the offshore infrastructure of Pemex [1] - A Russian oil tanker carrying 100,000 tons of humanitarian oil arrived in Cuba. The U.S. will "case - by - case" review further oil shipments to Cuba [1] - Trump said he is "not ready yet" to give up the effort to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and is dissatisfied with other countries not sending military forces to participate in the U.S.-Israel military operation against Iran [1] Investment Logic - Tensions in the Middle East have not eased. The Houthi armed forces are attacking Israeli targets, and there is a possibility of harassing merchant ships in the Red Sea. A Kuwaiti oil tanker was attacked, and the U.S. may send ground forces to seize islands. Two Russian oil terminals were attacked, which will interfere with Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports [2] Strategy - Due to the high short - term volatility of oil prices affected by the geopolitical situation, it is currently risky to participate in the crude oil market. It is recommended to use options tools to avoid risks [4]