2026区域经济盘点系列之二：250+地市经济财政债务大盘点

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, most prefecture - level cities saw an increase in GDP, with higher growth rates in the western region. Nearly 90% of cities had an increase in fiscal revenue, with higher growth in the central and western regions. The growth rate of interest - bearing debt of urban investment companies slowed down, and more than half of the cities saw a decline in the urban investment debt ratio. The default risk of urban investment bonds is still relatively small, and some profitable varieties can be explored [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Most Cities See an Increase in General Public Budget Revenue and an Improvement in Fiscal Self - Sufficiency 3.1.1 Most Cities' GDP Grows, with Higher Growth in the Western Region - As of March 29, 2026, 254 and 257 prefecture - level administrative units had disclosed their 2025 GDP scale and GDP year - on - year growth rate respectively. Economically strong cities in Jiangsu, Shandong, Fujian, and Zhejiang accounted for over 70% with a GDP of over 300 billion yuan. The number of cities with a GDP of over one trillion yuan increased to 25, including Wenzhou and Dalian which exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time in 2025. Nearly 70% of the 257 cities with disclosed data had a GDP growth rate above the national level (5.0%), and 6 cities had a growth rate of 7% or more, mainly in the western provinces [9][15]. 3.1.2 Nearly 90% of Cities See Fiscal Revenue Growth, with Higher Growth in the Central and Western Regions - As of March 29, 2025, 255 cities had disclosed their 2025 general public budget revenue. Nearly 90% of cities saw an increase in general public budget revenue, with higher growth in the central and western regions. 24 cities had a comparable growth rate of over 10%, mainly in the central and western provinces. Most cities in the eastern provinces had a growth rate of less than 5%. 31 cities had a negative growth rate, mainly in Shanxi, Yunnan, Guangdong, and Hunan [23][24]. 3.1.3 The Growth Rate of Interest - Bearing Debt of Urban Investment Companies Slows Down, and More than Half of the Cities See a Decline in the Urban Investment Debt Ratio - In 2025, most prefecture - level cities still saw an increase in the interest - bearing debt of urban investment companies, but the growth rate slowed down. The average growth rate of the interest - bearing debt of urban investment companies in each city from Q3 2025 compared to the end of 2024 was 3.7%, down from 4.2% in the first three quarters of 2024. More than half of the cities saw a decline in the urban investment debt ratio, mainly in Guangdong, Henan, Hubei, and Anhui. Nearly 90% of cities saw an increase in the government debt ratio [37]. 3.2 How to Explore Urban Investment Bonds in Each City - Since the debt - resolving cycle is ongoing and the central and provincial governments are starting to pay attention to the resolution of operating debt risks, the default risk of urban investment bonds is still small. Two investment strategies are recommended: focus on cities with relatively stable fundamentals and pull the duration appropriately to earn returns; pay attention to cities with significantly improved fundamentals and obtain returns through short - duration sinking [3][54]. - For cities with stable fundamentals, 88 cities were selected according to the criteria of positive growth in general public budget revenue and GDP in the past three years and a general public budget revenue of over 20 billion yuan in 2025. As of March 27, 2026, the average valuation of 2 - 3 - year AA urban investment bonds in cities such as Qingyuan in Guangdong, Xiangyang in Hubei, Zhuzhou in Hunan, and Shangrao in Jiangxi was over 2.1%; the average valuation of 2 - 3 - year AA urban investment bonds in cities such as Anqing in Anhui, Xiamen in Fujian, Huizhou, Zhaoqing, and Zhanjiang in Guangdong was between 2.0% - 2.1% [56]. - For cities with significantly improved fundamentals, 30 cities were selected according to the criteria of a GDP growth rate of over 5%, a growth rate of general public budget revenue of over 5%, and a decline in the urban investment debt ratio in 2025. After excluding 8 cities that also belonged to the group with stable fundamentals, 22 cities remained. The average valuation of AA urban investment bonds within 1 year in Shangqiu, Henan, AA urban investment bonds from 1 - 2 years in Jiaozuo, Henan, and AA - urban investment bonds within 1 year in Bazhong, Guangyuan, and Mianyang, Sichuan was over 2.1%. The average valuation of AA(2) urban investment bonds within 1 year in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang, and AA - urban investment bonds within 1 year in Huangshi and Jingzhou, Hubei was over 2.0% [58][59].