江河集团（601886）：海外拓展强化成长动能，高分红提升投资吸引力

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's profitability continues to improve, with a gross margin of 17.24% in 2025, up by 1.19 percentage points year-on-year. The Q4 gross margin reached 20.30%, an increase of 2.52 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company is experiencing strong cash flow, with a total cash flow from operations (CFO) of 1.545 billion yuan in 2025, although it decreased by 0.81 billion yuan year-on-year [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 567 million yuan (including tax) for 2025, with a dividend payout ratio of 92.83%, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.78% based on the closing price on March 30 [6] - The company is expanding its overseas business significantly, with a 30% increase in overseas orders, which now account for 35% of total orders [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 21.845 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.50% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 610 million yuan, down by 4.31% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 42.06% to 595 million yuan [6] - The company expects net profits for 2026-2028 to be 801 million, 901 million, and 1.020 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.21%, 12.50%, and 13.27% respectively [5][7] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 9.8 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 1.133 billion shares [3] Market Performance - The company has a strong order backlog, with total orders amounting to approximately 37.6 billion yuan, which is 1.72 times its revenue for 2025. The overseas order backlog is about 15.3 billion yuan, representing a 51% year-on-year increase [6] - The company has achieved a significant increase in overseas orders, particularly in the curtain wall segment, which saw an 84% year-on-year growth [6] - The company’s product strategy has led to a rapid expansion in the global market, with notable growth in regions such as Australia, Uzbekistan, Thailand, the UK, and Mongolia [6]