中国飞鹤（06186）：库存去清筑底，原料自主及多元布局迎复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Feihe [2][15]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of RMB 18.11 billion for 2025, a decrease of 12.7% year-over-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.94 billion, down 45.7% year-over-year, which fell short of market expectations [3][11]. - In the second half of 2025, revenue was RMB 8.96 billion, down 15.9% year-over-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 940 million, down 44.6% year-over-year, although the decline in profits narrowed and operating margins improved [3][11]. - The company has proactively optimized channel inventory and controlled shipment schedules since May 2025, which, along with reduced government subsidies and impairment of biological assets, has placed short-term pressure on performance. However, following inventory destocking, fundamentals have strengthened, laying the foundation for profit recovery [3][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to be RMB 18.73 billion, RMB 19.47 billion, and RMB 20.36 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be RMB 2.41 billion, RMB 2.57 billion, and RMB 2.76 billion for the same years [5][15]. - The estimated diluted EPS for 2026, 2027, and 2028 is RMB 0.27, RMB 0.28, and RMB 0.30, respectively [5][15]. Business Structure and Growth - The business structure continues to optimize, with the core infant formula business generating RMB 15.87 billion, accounting for 87.6% of total revenue, and maintaining a market share of 19% [4][12]. - New product launches have shown promising results, with the newly launched products Jiecu and Qicu generating over RMB 69 million in revenue within a month of their release [4][12]. - The company is expanding its overseas business, with revenue from the U.S. and Canada reaching RMB 180 million and RMB 50 million, respectively, showing year-over-year growth of 11.7% and 23.3% [4][12]. Cost Management and Financial Health - The consolidated gross margin for the year was 65.0%, down 1.3 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to an increased proportion of low-margin raw material powder revenue. However, the gross margin for infant formula powder improved to 73.5%, up 2.2 percentage points year-over-year [13]. - The company holds net cash of RMB 16.2 billion, indicating robust operating cash flow [13][14].