瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20260401

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively strong, but as the US and Iran release remarks about conflict mitigation, the decline in oil prices will drive the adjustment of the black commodity sector. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating below the 0-axis. The reference view is oscillating downward, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,287 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 724,895 lots, down 48,181 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net open interest: -28,239 lots, up 888 lots [2]. - HC5 - 10 contract spread: -21 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 549,618 tons, unchanged [2]. - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 167 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - HC main contract basis: 13 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 40 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 782 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - 45-port iron ore inventory: 169.9684 million tons, down 1.0583 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 497,600 tons, down 25,900 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.9173 million tons, up 39,500 tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 2.3994 million tons, down 95,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 81.05%, up 1.25 percentage points [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 86.65%, up 1.10 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 3.0561 million tons, up 54,000 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 78.07%, up 1.38 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 838,500 tons, down 11,100 tons [2]. - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 3.6942 million tons, down 69,100 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 7.47 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 1.6724 million vehicles, down 777,400 vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 1.8052 million vehicles, down 541,300 vehicles [2]. - Air conditioner production: 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 11.975 million units, down 380,000 units [2]. Industry News - The US White House said on Tuesday that US President Trump will deliver a national speech at 21:00 on April 1st, Eastern Time (9:00 on April 2nd, Beijing Time), providing "important updates" on the Iran issue [2]. - Affected by rising raw material costs, the expiration of factory rebate policies, and the end of promotional activities, domestic mainstream electric two-wheeler brands such as Yadea, Tailing, Aima, and Ninebot plan to officially raise the prices of most of their models starting from April 1st [2]. - On Wednesday, the HC2605 contract decreased in open interest and declined. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its first-quarter regular meeting to study the main ideas of monetary policy for the next stage, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation [2]. Key Points to Watch - Thursday's hot-rolled coil weekly output, in-plant inventory, and social inventory [2].