瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the I2605 contract rebounded but was blocked. The US and Iran have released statements indicating a relaxation of the conflict, and the decline in oil prices has weakened the support for iron ore prices. The current supply and demand situation shows that the shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has decreased, the arrival volume has increased, the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills have continued to rise, and port inventories have declined. The expectation of increased demand will drive further inventory reduction. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 812.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan; the trading volume is 347,799 lots, down 5,825 lots; the 5 - 9 contract spread is 23 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 981 lots, down 1,765 lots; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts are 3,300 lots, up 3,300 lots; the Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 106.5 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 1.02 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 835 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 824 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 742 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 12 yuan, up 1 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 107.65 US dollars/ton, down 0.85 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.15, down 0.01; the estimated import cost is 855 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 2,472.40 tons, down 671.90 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,626.70 tons, up 243.60 tons; the iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,666.83 tons, down 147.35 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 8,978.56 tons, down 55.50 tons [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 9,764.00 tons, down 1,475.00 tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) are 25 days, up 6 days; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 40.16 tons, down 0.69 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 63.62%, down 0.67%; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 61.95 tons, down 1.18 tons; the BDI index is 1,995.00, down 22.00; the iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 30.12 US dollars/ton, down 0.08 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 11.12 US dollars/ton, up 0.14 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 81.05%, up 1.25%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 86.65%, up 1.10%; the domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.55%, down 0.12%; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.94%, up 0.01%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 19.98%, up 0.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 21.00%, up 1.26% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2,472.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 671.9 tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 1,875.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 684.3 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1,033.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 961.9 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 839.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 795.6 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 841.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 277.6 tons. - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,626.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 243.6 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,426.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 154.7 tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,198.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 147.7 tons [2]