Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-04-01 09:04Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar consumption will be 180.07 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar market surplus will be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the previous forecast [2]. - ICE raw sugar futures fell on Tuesday, retreating from a five - month high on Monday. The increase in sugar production in Thailand, a major exporter, restricts the rise of sugar prices. The most actively traded May raw sugar futures on ICE fell 0.03 cents or 0.20%, settling at 15.52 cents per pound. With Brazilian sugar not yet being crushed and the international market in a news vacuum, raw sugar prices lack more upward drivers and are expected to remain volatile [2]. - In the domestic market, the beet sugar production in the north has ended, basically in line with expectations, while the cane sugar production has exceeded expectations. The domestic sugar production is expected to be around 12 million tons. Currently, the sugar market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and there is some pressure on prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5,356 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan; the main contract position was 243,255 hands, a decrease of 25,931 hands [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 16,862, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 113,172 hands, an increase of 7,706 hands [2]. - The total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar was 0, with no change [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,252 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan [2]. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,465 yuan/ton; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,395 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The total export volume of Brazilian sugar in the month was 222.97 million tons, a decrease of 12 million tons [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 1,138 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was - 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was - 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar was 240,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar was 520,000 tons [2]. - The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 199.23 million tons, an increase of 44.17 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Yunnan was 69.75 million tons, an increase of 16.55 million tons [2]. - The cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 565.13 million tons, an increase of 162.23 million tons; the cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Yunnan was 149.34 million tons, an increase of 50.93 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly production volume of refined sugar was 359.04 million tons; the monthly production volume of soft drinks was 1,342.1 million tons, an increase of 296.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.56%, a decrease of 4.86%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 8.56%, a decrease of 4.85% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 11.16%, an increase of 0.29%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 9.4%, an increase of 0.16% [2].