瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260401

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea production has slightly decreased recently, and there is a greater possibility of a slight increase in production considering short - term enterprise failures. Agricultural demand has weakened, but industrial demand is stable, supporting smooth urea shipments. The inventory of urea factories is at a low level, and the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to narrow. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1840 - 1880 [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1851 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is - 32 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 157,223 lots, down 16,685 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 22,940, up 11,689. The exchange warehouse receipts are 9,662, up 955 [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1880 yuan/ton and 191 yuan/ton respectively, while those in Henan, Shandong and Anhui remained unchanged at 1860 yuan/ton, 1900 yuan/ton and 1870 yuan/ton respectively. The main contract basis is 49 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan.FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained unchanged at 622. and 752.5 dollars/ton respectively [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 169,000 tons, up 2,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is about about 700,5 tons, down 108, tons.The urea enterprise operating rate is 88.35%, down 3.84%; the daily output is about 210,80 tons, down 6,300 tons. The urea export volume is 110,000 tons, down 20%. The monthly output is 6, tons, down 2 tons [ ] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is %, up ; the melamine operating rate is 65.9%, up 6. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is yuan/ton, up 170 yuan.The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 444., tons, down 73, tons; the weekly output of melamine is 36, tons, up 3,700 tons [2] Industry News - As of April 1, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 536,000 tons, down 164,500 tons or 23.48% from the previous period. As of March 26, the port sample inventory was 169,000 tons, up 2,000 tons or 1.20%. The production of urea enterprises was 1,475,600 tons, down 43,800 tons or 2.88% [2]