贵金属数据日报-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to show a range - bound oscillation due to the repeated geopolitical news and the risk of further escalation of the Middle East conflict. However, they are likely to gradually build a bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, the supporting factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, the huge US debt, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases remain solid. As factors like geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metal market is expected to emerge from the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to seize the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment [6] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price Tracking - Precious Metal Prices: On March 31, 2026, London gold spot was at $4557.00 per ounce, London silver spot at $72.02 per ounce, COMEX gold at $4586.90 per ounce, COMEX silver at $72.20 per ounce, AU2606 at 1020.10 yuan per gram, AG2606 at 18126 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) at 1016.58 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) at 18052 yuan per kilogram. Compared with March 30, 2026, the price increases were 0.6%, 2.4%, 0.7%, 2.6%, 0.5%, 2.4%, 0.6%, and 2.1% respectively [5] - Price Spreads and Ratios: On March 31, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.52 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 74 yuan per kilogram, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 2.81 yuan per gram, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 46 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 56.28, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 63.53, AU2608 - 2606 was 3.04 yuan per gram, and AG2608 - 2606 was - 12 yuan per kilogram. Compared with March 30, 2026, the changes were - 26.1%, 196.0%, 28.2%, - 2003.6%, - 1.8%, - 1.9%, 19.7%, and - 52.0% respectively [5] 3.2 Position Data - ETF Positions: On March 30, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1046.13 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15288.3594 tons. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were - 0.33% and - 0.79% respectively [5] - COMEX Non - commercial Positions: As of March 24, 2026, the COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 220861 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52534 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 168327 contracts. The COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 33938 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 9265 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 24673 contracts. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were 2.27%, - 6.34%, 5.29%, 9.04%, 0.23%, and 12.76% respectively [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - SHFE Inventory: On March 31, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory data was N/A, and the SHFE silver inventory data was N/A [5] - COMEX Inventory: On March 30, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 31536505 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 327589421 troy ounces. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were - 0.56% and - 0.22% respectively [5] 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - Exchange Rates: On March 31, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.92, with a change of - 0.04% compared with March 30, 2026 [5] - Interest Rates and Stock Market: On March 30, 2026, the US dollar index was 100.51, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.82%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, the VIX was 30.61, the S&P 500 was 6343.72, and NYMEX crude oil was $105.01. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were 0.33%, - 1.55%, - 2.03%, - 1.42%, - 0.39%, and 3.79% respectively [5] 3.5 Market Analysis - Market Review: On August 31, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.46% to 1020.1 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 3.41% to 18126 yuan per kilogram [5] - Influence Analysis: Fed Chairman Powell's statement eased short - term market concerns about interest rate hikes, causing the US dollar index and US bond yields to decline. The market trading logic shifted from inflation to stagflation, supporting precious metal prices. However, the Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, with the risk of further escalation, which may cause short - term suppression of precious metal prices [6] - Future Market Analysis: In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to oscillate within a range. In the long term, they are likely to gradually build a bottom and return to the long - term value center. Investors are advised to seize the long - term layout opportunity [6]