2026年二季度尿素展望：2026年3月农需决定走向

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global urea market will face more intense competition and changes due to the increase in global urea production capacity [11] - The price range of UR2605 is expected to be between 1950 - 2000 yuan/ton, and the price range for another situation is 1700 - 2000 yuan/ton [26] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Urea Q1 2026 Market Review - On March 18, 2026, the price was 1887 yuan/ton, a 9.19% change, with a 2.29% change in another aspect. There were different price levels such as 1760 yuan/ton, 1810 yuan/ton, and 1840 yuan/ton, with proportion changes of 50% and 43%. The FOB price was 600 yuan/ton, and the range was 21 - 22.5 [6] - There were price differences in the 5 - 9 months, with values like -41, -47, +29, 23, etc [8] 3.2 2026 Urea Supply - Demand Pattern Outlook 3.2.1 Supply - In 2024, the domestic urea production capacity was 314 (unit not clear), and there were different production - related data throughout the year. In 2025, the global total production capacity was close to 2.3 billion tons, with 560 million tons of overseas production. In 2026, the domestic production capacity was 6.27 million tons [11] - In 2026, new overseas production capacity is expected in Russia (73 million tons), Mexico (50 million tons), Bangladesh (100 million tons), and India (127 million tons), with a total of 350 million tons [14] 3.2.2 Demand - The agricultural demand for urea has seasonal patterns from March - May, June - July, August, and September - October, with a 12.6% change (not clear what it represents) [16] - There were data on compound fertilizer prices, Shandong melamine prices, compound fertilizer operating rates, compound fertilizer inventories, urea export quantities, and urea Middle - East prices [24][25] 3.3 Views and Strategies - The price is expected to be 1840 yuan/ton with an upward trend, and the UR2605 price range is 1950 - 2000 yuan/ton. Another price range is 1700 - 2000 yuan/ton [26]