化肥成本重塑种植结构，美豆面积回升已成定局？

Report Overview - The report is titled "Fertilizer Costs Reshape Planting Structure: Is an Upturn in U.S. Soybean Acreage a Foregone Conclusion?" and is released by the Agricultural Products Group of the Institute with investment consulting business qualification [2][4] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict driving up fertilizer costs, especially nitrogen fertilizers, the cost of corn planting has risen significantly, and the loss pressure is much greater than that of soybeans. The market expects the U.S. soybean planting area to rebound to 85 - 86 million acres in 2026 (a 5% year - on - year increase), and the corn area to decrease accordingly. If the area meets expectations, U.S. soybeans may fluctuate between 1140 - 1180 cents per bushel in the short term, and after the report is released, attention can be paid to the medium - term buying opportunities supported by the cost increase [4] Summary by Directory Geopolitical Conflict Drives Up Fertilizer Costs - The new round of Middle East geopolitical conflict in late February 2026 led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, causing disruptions in oil transportation. Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, driving up the prices of chemicals, oilseeds, and related products. The increase in fuel prices has a cost - transmission effect throughout the agricultural industry chain. The conflict also affects global agricultural product pricing through the soaring fertilizer costs [5] - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial in global fertilizer trade. About 35% of global urea exports and 45% of sulfur exports are transported through this route. The conflict has directly impacted fertilizer production and transportation in the region, leading to supply - chain tensions [5] - After the conflict, the CBOT urea futures price soared from $413 per ton at the end of February to $690 per ton in late March, a rise of over 65%, and the anhydrous ammonia price increased by about 20%. The Green Markets North American Fertilizer Price Index rose 22.57% from February 28 to March 20 [6] - The price - transmission path is: geopolitical conflict → fertilizer supply - chain interruption → soaring fertilizer prices → significant increase in corn and soybean planting costs → farmers adjust planting decisions, which is the core factor driving the change in the U.S. planting structure in 2026 [7] Fertilizer Costs Reshape the Soybean - Corn Planting Structure - Affected by the Iran war driving up fertilizer costs, U.S. farmers are expected to significantly adjust their planting structure in 2026. The soaring cost of corn planting will drive some farmland to switch to soybean planting. The market generally expects the U.S. soybean planting area to rebound to 85 - 86 million acres, a year - on - year increase of about 5%, and the corn area to decrease by about 4.5% [9] - In 2025, the estimated total cost of corn was $890 per acre, and that of soybeans was $658 per acre. In 2026, the USDA expects the per - acre production cost of all major crops to continue rising by 2.2% - 3.3%. The USDA estimates the corn planting cost to be $917 per acre, and farmers faced a potential loss of about $150 per acre even before the geopolitical conflict [9] - The absolute value of corn's operating cost is almost 1.8 times that of soybeans, mainly due to higher seed and fertilizer inputs. The proportion of fertilizer in U.S. corn planting costs is 16% - 24%, much higher than the less - than - 10% proportion in soybeans. The U.S. Soybean Association expects a loss of about $213 per acre for corn and about $139 per acre for soybeans in 2026 [10] - Corn is a typical "high - nitrogen crop" with high sensitivity to fertilizer price increases. Soybeans can fix nitrogen through root nodules and hardly need additional nitrogen fertilizers. The current soybean/corn price ratio is 2.54, indicating that soybeans are relatively more attractive. Corn faces more severe loss pressure, while soybeans are near the break - even line [11][12] Price Analysis - After the report is released, if the soybean planting area is within the expected range of 85 - 86 million acres, the market has already digested some sentiment and pricing. The short - term price of U.S. soybeans may fluctuate between 1140 - 1180 cents per bushel. If the area is higher than expected, the price may decline but the drop is limited due to cost support. If the area is less than 85 million acres, it is short - term positive for the U.S. soybean price, which may break through the 1200 - cent mark [13] - Attention should be paid to the resonance effect of biodiesel. Before the report is released, it is not recommended to take heavy unilateral positions. If the area falls within the 85 - 86 million - acre range, attention can be paid to the short - term buying opportunities after adjustment, as cost increase is an important factor supporting the medium - term price of U.S. soybeans [13]