黑色金属数据日报-20260401

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: Continue to fluctuate. Spot prices fell slightly on Tuesday with reduced trading volume. The industry's weekly production, sales, and inventory improved, but the improvement rate decreased. Plate demand has reached the seasonal peak, while building materials still have room to grow. Due to increased geopolitical differences, the strong cost support logic has weakened, and the unilateral trend has turned to a fluctuating pattern. Consider long basis or cash - futures positive arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Supply - demand situation has improved, and costs are supported. The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly last week, while the production of silicomanganese decreased. Steel mill demand improved significantly, and non - steel demand also provided marginal support. Ferrosilicon inventory decreased, and silicomanganese inventory increased slightly, with overall inventory pressure under control. Manganese ore prices are strong, providing cost support [2][4]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The sentiment in the spot market has further cooled. Auction failure rates are high, and prices are mainly falling. The high oil price story is affecting the market, and the actual price increase of coke is slower than expected, leading to a cooling of the bullish sentiment. Consider taking profits on the previously recommended coke hedging strategy [5]. - Iron Ore: Prices are mainly in a high - level fluctuation. Due to the undetermined negotiation between Sinosteel and BHP, prices are unlikely to drop significantly in the short term. Without new restrictive policies, prices are also difficult to break through upwards. It is not recommended to chase long positions on the iron ore futures [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Closing Prices and Changes: On March 31, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3146.00 yuan/ton, down 19.00 yuan (- 0.60%); HC2610 closed at 3310.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan (- 0.27%); J2609 closed at 1787.00 yuan/ton, down 56.00 yuan (- 3.04%); JM2609 closed at 1278.00 yuan/ton, down 79.50 yuan (- 5.86%). For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3121.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan (- 0.48%); HC2605 closed at 3294.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan (- 0.33%); J2605 closed at 1701.50 yuan/ton, down 55.00 yuan (- 3.13%); JM2605 closed at 1148.50 yuan/ton, down 69.50 yuan (- 5.71%) [1]. - Spread and Ratio: On March 31, the coil - rebar spread was 173.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan; the rebar - ore ratio was 3.86, unchanged; the coal - coke ratio was 1.48, up 0.04; the rebar disk profit was - 120.70 yuan/ton, up 16.25 yuan; the coking disk profit was 174.00 yuan/ton, up 35.12 yuan [1]. Spot Market - Steel: On March 31, Shanghai rebar was 3200.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3190.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 2980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan [1]. - Other: On March 31, Qingdao Port's Super Special Powder was 670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ganqimao Du's coking coal was 1310.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke was 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qingdao Port's PB was 785.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan [1]. Investment Strategies - Steel: Unilateral position should be on the sidelines. Gradually enter the long basis opportunity for hot - rolled coils [7]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Adopt the strategy of short - term long positions on dips [7]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Unilateral position should be on the sidelines. Take profits on the previously recommended cash - futures positive arbitrage positions [7].