“15+3”：新时代的核心资产

Core Viewpoints - The report introduces the concept of "15+3" assets, defined as assets with a growth rate of around 15% and a dividend yield of around 3%, which are considered the core assets of the new era [2][5] - The "15+3" assets have shown strong performance in 2024, with a median return of 27.6% from January to April, significantly outperforming other categories [25][36] - The report emphasizes that "15+3" assets are a balanced solution in the current market environment, offering both growth and stability, and are expected to perform well in the context of economic recovery and market rebalancing [14][48] Characteristics of "15+3" Assets - High Growth with Stability: In the era of high-quality development, a 15% growth rate is considered exceptional, as only about 20% of listed companies have a five-year compound growth rate exceeding three times the nominal GDP growth rate [29][63] - High Dividend Yield with Elasticity: The median dividend payout ratio for all A-shares in 2023 was 30.37%, a significant increase from 20.96% in 2022, indicating that high dividend yields are becoming more common and are expected to expand further [9][10] - Combination of Growth and Dividends: The report argues that growth and dividends are not mutually exclusive, citing the example of the S&P 500, where even high-growth sectors like information technology have maintained high dividend and buyback yields [15][16] - Industry-Neutral: The "15+3" assets are not concentrated in specific industries, making them a style-based investment choice rather than an industry-specific one [57][73] Screening Criteria for "15+3" Assets - The screening criteria for "15+3" assets include: 1) being a constituent of the CSI 800 index with a market capitalization of at least 30 billion yuan; 2) expected net profit growth of no less than 10% for 2024Q1, 2024E, and 2025E; and 3) a dividend yield of no less than 2.5% based on the 2023 annual report [25][75] Market Performance and Trends - In 2024, the "15+3" assets have outperformed other categories, particularly in the 10%-15% growth rate range, which aligns with the "15+3" characteristics [36] - The report highlights that the market is shifting from a barbell strategy (focusing on high-dividend and high-growth stocks) to a more balanced approach, with "15+3" assets representing the "waist assets" that are expected to benefit from this rebalancing [14][48] Comparison with US Market - The report draws parallels with the US market, where high-growth sectors like information technology have maintained high dividend and buyback yields, suggesting that growth and dividends can coexist [15][16] - Over the past decade, the S&P 500 has had a combined dividend and buyback yield of 4.4%, with the information technology sector achieving a yield of 5.1%, further supporting the argument that growth and dividends are not mutually exclusive [16][73]