美债的关键在降息开启的时点

Inflation Data - The U.S. May CPI year-on-year growth rate was 3.3%, below the expected 3.4% and the previous value of 3.4%[9] - The May CPI month-on-month growth rate was 0%, lower than the expected 0.1% and the previous value of 0.3%[9] - Energy prices fell month-on-month by 2%, while food prices slightly increased by 0.14%[26] Federal Reserve Outlook - The June FOMC meeting indicated a reduction in the guidance for rate cuts to one time in 2024, down from three times previously[23] - The market consensus is that the first rate cut may occur by the end of 2024, with ongoing fluctuations in expectations through Q3[43] - The long-term neutral interest rate was raised by 25 basis points, suggesting a narrower scope for future rate cuts[23] Treasury Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased from 4.437% to 4.230%, a decline of 20.7 basis points over the week[5] - The market is at risk of pricing in too many rate cut expectations, which could lead to a rapid decline in long-term Treasury yields[43] Currency Exchange Rates - The onshore RMB exchange rate depreciated by 131 basis points, moving from 7.2426 to 7.2557 against the USD[30] - The offshore RMB exchange rate also saw a depreciation of 78 basis points, from 7.2632 to 7.2710[30] - The central parity rate was adjusted down by 29 basis points to 7.1135 on June 12[7]